I am interested in tropical cyclones, numerical modeling, and predictability. I study the ability of various ensemble techniques to represent the uncertainty in initial conditions, and how the error and forecast error variance evolve with time. I have explored direct modification of the initial conditions using a balanced vorticity perturbation initialized in WRF-ARW to better understand the sensitivity of tropical cyclone track prediction to local synoptic influences for two case studies, Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) and Hurricane Ike (2008). I have also examined the evolution of dynamic and thermodynamic fields for pre-genesis disturbances and made a comparison with non-developing tropical waves, using dropsonde data, to better understand the physical mechanisms by which tropical cyclogenesis occurs. I am currently investigating tropical cyclogenesis as modeled in the ECMWF ensemble and comparing the predictability of genesis of the cyclone to the predictability of the parent environment that supports genesis.