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Empirical studies of unobservable parameters. Brian Mapes, ECMWF 2001 seminar on parameterization. Subject: The Role of Observations.

Title slide Title slide
Outline Outline
Observations: upstream, downstream Observations: upstream, downstream
Unobservable parameters Unobservable parameters
Empiricism: engineering Empiricism: engineering
Empiricism: science Empiricism: science
Examples outline I Examples outline I
Entrainment Entrainment
Entrainment: Lambda Entrainment: Lambda
Effects of lambda I Effects of lambda I
Effects of lambda II Effects of lambda II
Coupled effects Coupled effects
Min. lambda in ensemble Min. lambda in ensemble
Min. lambda effects Min. lambda effects
Entrainment: downstream problem Entrainment: downstream problem
3 upstream problems: 3 upstream problems:
I. Trimodal I. Trimodal
II. Organized II. Organized
III. Irregular III. Irregular
III. Irregular III. Irregular
New: successive entrainment New: successive entrainment
A role for organisation A role for organisation
Stochastic Stochastic
Examples outline II Examples outline II
Param<->dyn<->param Param<->dyn<->param
Param<->dyn<->param II Param<->dyn<->param II
Advected persistence Advected persistence
Gross moist stability Gross moist stability
Avoiding G.M.S. Avoiding G.M.S.
Process heating profiles Process heating profiles
Total heating: ~universal Total heating: ~universal
Observed Q(p) & congestus Observed Q(p) & congestus
Top-heavy Qrad(p) Top-heavy Qrad(p)
Examples outline III Examples outline III
Param<->NUMERICS<->param Param<->NUMERICS<->param
Lorenz compuational mode Lorenz compuational mode
Summary questions: Summary questions: "appropriate complexity"
summary questions from Ex I summary questions from Ex I
summary questions from Ex II summary questions from Ex II
summary questions from Ex III summary questions from Ex III
Goodbye Goodbye
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