What controls large-scale variations of deep convection?

Brian E. Mapes
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado

ABSTRACT

Suppose deep convective clouds represent the free buoyant ascent of low-level air, once it is brought to its level of free convection (LFC) by a low-level "activation" process energetic enough to overcome the convecive inhibition energy (CIN). Large-scale enhancements of convection should therefore be attributed to processes such as low-level adiabatic dynamic lifting; enhanced frequency of occurrence of strong activation mechanisms such as gust fronts; enhancements of the warmest, moistest boundary-layer air; and decreased mixing of dry air into updrafts. Quantifying these bulk sensitivities - which involve (intercorrelated) subgridscale distributions as well as mean values - seems necessary for accurate, physically- based parameterization.

Differences of the right sign are present in tropical aircraft data and enhanced-suppressed sounding composite differences, but actual values of CIN, LFC, etc. are quite delicately sensitive to unresolvable details of entrainment, precipitation, parcel definition, and vertical resolution. Still, a model would presumably develop its own internally-adjusted (and tunable) economy of inhibition & activation, and would perhaps yield better simulations for having appropriate sensitivity to low-level inversions. Its climatology needs only be wrong by the amount of these delicate quantities, making their smallness a blessing in disguise.