The primary purpose of the National Science Foundation's PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) project is to advance our understanding of why tropical disturbances develop, or do not develop, into tropical cyclones. The ensemble forecast products prepared daily on this website can be used as follows:
NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) graphical products will be uploaded intermittently prior to 15 August 2011, and then daily.
ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System graphical products will be available between 15 August - 30 September 2011.
(1) To identify probabilities of (a) favourable environmental conditions and (b) exceedance of critical values of storm-centric metrics including circulation, thickness anomaly, vorticity, mean sea level pressure, upper-level divergence and low-level convergence, associated with named pouch systems.
(2) To identify potential future systems worthy of investigation.
(3) To offer 10-day forecast guidance and probabilities for longer-term preparation.
Associated objectives of this project include an improved understanding on how predictability of tropical cyclogenesis is limited by environmental factors, such as vertical wind shear, mid-lower tropospheric humidity, and the specification of the initial vortex itself.
Will Komaromi (Ph.D. student), Jonathan Labriola (undergraduate research assistant), Ryan Torn (SUNY Albany), the PREDICT team.
| 2011 Montgomery Pouch Products | CIMSS Satellite Products | NRL Monterey | Real-time guidance (Jonathan Vigh) | 2010 EOL Field Catalog |