Ensemble track forecasts by ECMWF
Figures below show ensemble track forecasts by ECMWF for Hurricane IKE (2008) initiated at 0000 (left) and 1200 (right) UTC of September 9th 2008. The black line is the best track. The black triangles are the forecast positions at 120-h.
Synopsis
The links below show the analysis (FT000) and forecasts (FT012 to FT120) of the geopotential height at 850, 500 and 300-hPa by ECMWF initiated at 0000 (left) and 1200 (right) UTC of September 9th 2008.
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Vertical and horizontal structure of initial perturbations
Time evolution of steering flow
The links below show the time evolution of the steering flow of IKE by the ECMWF ensembles initiated at 0000 (left) and 1200 (right) UTC of September 9th 2008. The steering flow is here defined by the asymmetric wind component within 300 km from the strom center at 500-hPa.
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Growth of asymmetric wind component of perturbations
The figures below show the growth of the asymmetric wind component of perturbations at 500-hPa by the ECMWF ensembles initiated at 0000 (left) and 1200 (right) UTC of September 9th 2008.
