Reef fish recruitment dynamics: integration and analysis of long-term visual fish surveys to examine environmental influences.

The idea that connectivity between mangrove forests and coral reefs, mediated by ontogenetic migrations of reef fishes that use mangroves for nursery habitat, is crucial for the replenishment of adult populations on the reef has recently received renewed attention. However, direct evidence of this linkage and an understanding of the influence variability of juveniles within mangrove nurseries has on the dynamics of adult reef fish populations is still lacking for many species. The present work is part of a larger study integrating two long-term and on-going efforts in southern Florida using visual survey methods to monitor fishes inhabiting (1) the Florida Keys reef tract and (2) adjacent inshore mangrove nursery habitats in Biscayne Bay. Our objective is to synthesize both data sets to establish the nature and extent of the linkage between mangrove and reef habitats and construct predictive models of recruitment dynamics, based on the mangrove survey data, that account for environmental variation and allow estimation of reef fish stock size.