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SEMINAR: MPO Seminar: Dr. Cecilia Bitz, TODAY, at 4:00 p.m., MSC 343

From: Sandrine Apelbaum <sapelbaum@rsmas.miami.edu>
Subject: SEMINAR: MPO Seminar: Dr. Cecilia Bitz, TODAY, at 4:00 p.m., MSC 343
Date: Mon, 22 Apr 2013 09:05:40 -0400
MPO Seminar

Dr. Cecilia Bitz
University of Washington, Seattle



Title:
"The Predictability of Arctic Sea Ice"
 

Date: Monday, April 22, at 4:00 p.m.

Room: MSC 343


Abstract:The recent sharp decline in Arctic sea ice, particularly during summer months, and the potential for expanding human activity in the Arctic has prompted an interest in predicting Arctic sea ice. The first attempts to forecast sea ice have only just become available. My group has evaluated the Arctic sea ice predictability in the Community Climate System Model Version 4. We find northern hemisphere sea ice area is predictable for about 1-2 years, but the location of greatest persistence varies seasonally. Sea ice thickness anomalies are generally more persistent (3-4 years) and are strongly influenced by greenhouse warming (within about 3 years). Mechanisms that give rise to predictability in the sea ice area include coupling with anomaly patterns of sea ice thickness in summer and with sea surface temperature in transition seasons and the advection of anomalies with the mean circulation. These results and the promise of predicting Arctic sea ice will be discussed.


Sandrine Apelbaum
Meteorology and Physical Oceanography 
Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science
University of Miami
4600 Rickenbacker Causeway
Miami, FL 33149-1098
Tel     (305) 421-4057
Fax     (305) 421-4696