SEMINAR: NHC Seminar - Wed., Feb. 13th, 3:30pm - “Structure and Evolution of Developing and Non-developing African Easterly Waves during NAMMA” - Nelsie Ramos

[Christopher Landsea - NOAA Federal <chris.landsea@noaa.gov>]

Hi folks,

NHC will host a seminar tomorrow (Wednesday):

“Structure and Evolution of Developing and Non-developing
 African Easterly Waves during the NASA African Monsoon
Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA)”  (abstract below)

Nelsie Ramos
 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center

Wednesday, February 13th
 3:30-4:30pm (Coffee & Cookies - 3:15pm)
 NHC Seminar Room

All are invited to attend.

Sincerely,
 chris
 **********************************************************************
 Chris Landsea
 Science and Operations Officer
 NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center
 11691 S.W. 17th Street
 Miami, Florida 33165-2149
 Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov P:305-229-4446
 **********************************************************************
 "The world's great Atlantic hurricanes are apocalyptic machines that
  move across water, feed off water, push water from ocean to shore and
  out of giant lakes, and make water a weapon of death."
  - Eliot Kleinberg, _Black Cloud - The Great Florida Hurricane of 1928_


“Structure and Evolution of Developing and Non-developing African
 Easterly Waves during NAMMA”

A modeling and data impact study was performed using the NOAA HWRFx
 model with the aim to find distinguishing factors to better
 discriminate between possible developing and non-developing African
 Easterly Waves (AEWs) into tropical cyclones (TCs).  Two AEWs from the
 2006 hurricane season were examined.  One AEW was the precursor of
 Hurricane Helene (HAEW).  The second AEW preceded Helene (NDAEW),
 however it failed to intensify into a TC.

The effect of convection, nesting and initial conditions in the
 forecast of the AEWs were evaluated.  New initial conditions were
 produced by HEDAS and had assimilated dropwindsonde data gathered in
 NAMMA that was not ingested into NOAA/NCEP models in real time.

The HWRFx implicit convection and nesting capability showed to have a
 strengthening effect on the AEWs.  Assimilation of additional
 dropwindsondes data for the NDAEW case greatly improved the initial
 state of the model and produced a more accurate forecast while the
 HAEW case demonstrated that additional data sometimes could result in
 intensity forecast degradation.  A detailed analysis of the
 dynamic-thermodynamic evolution of the environments and structures of
 the two AEWs provided favorable and un-favorable conditions for TC
 development as well as insight on where in the atmosphere tropical
 cyclogenesis takes place.

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