SEMINAR: NHC Seminar - Wed., Feb 13th - 3:30pm - Nelsie Ramos - “Structure and Evolution of Developing and Non-developing African Easterly Waves during NAMMA”

[Christopher Landsea - NOAA Federal <chris.landsea@noaa.gov>]

Hi folks,

NHC will host a seminar next Wednesday:

“Structure and Evolution of Developing and Non-developing
African Easterly Waves during NAMMA”  (abstract below)

Nelsie Ramos
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center

Wednesday, February 13th
3:30-4:30pm (Coffee & Cookies - 3:15pm)
NHC Seminar Room

All are invited to attend.  Foreign nationals planning
to attend must contact me by Monday.

Sincerely,
chris
**********************************************************************
Chris Landsea
Science and Operations Officer
NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center
11691 S.W. 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149
Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov P:305-229-4446
**********************************************************************
"The world's great Atlantic hurricanes are apocalyptic machines that
 move across water, feed off water, push water from ocean to shore and
 out of giant lakes, and make water a weapon of death."
 - Eliot Kleinberg, _Black Cloud - The Great Florida Hurricane of 1928_


“Structure and Evolution of Developing and Non-developing African
Easterly Waves during NAMMA”

A modeling and data impact study was performed using the NOAA HWRFx
model with the aim to find distinguishing factors to better
discriminate between possible developing and non-developing African
Easterly Waves (AEWs) into tropical cyclones (TCs).  Two AEWs from the
2006 hurricane season were examined.  One AEW was the precursor of
Hurricane Helene (HAEW).  The second AEW preceded Helene (NDAEW),
however it failed to intensify into a TC.

The effect of convection, nesting and initial conditions in the
forecast of the AEWs were evaluated.  New initial conditions were
produced by HEDAS and had assimilated dropwindsonde data gathered in
NAMMA that was not ingested into NOAA/NCEP models in real time.

The HWRFx implicit convection and nesting capability showed to have a
strengthening effect on the AEWs.  Assimilation of additional
dropwindsondes data for the NDAEW case greatly improved the initial
state of the model and produced a more accurate forecast while the
HAEW case demonstrated that additional data sometimes could result in
intensity forecast degradation.  A detailed analysis of the
dynamic-thermodynamic evolution of the environments and structures of
the two AEWs provided favorable and un-favorable conditions for TC
development as well as insight on where in the atmosphere tropical
cyclogenesis takes place.

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