SEMINAR: NHC Seminar today - "The Influence of Tropical Cyclone Size on Intensification" - Cristina Carrasco - 2:30pm

[Christopher Landsea - NOAA Federal <chris.landsea@noaa.gov>]

Hi folks,

NHC will host a seminar today:

"The Influence of Tropical Cyclone Size on Intensification"
(abstract below)

Cristina Carrasco
North Carolina A&T University
(now at SUNY-Albany)

Friday, January 11th
2:30-3:30pm (Coffee & Samoas - 2:15pm)
NHC Seminar Room

All are invited to attend.

Sincerely,
chris
**********************************************************************
Chris Landsea
Science and Operations Officer
NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center
11691 S.W. 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149
Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov P:305-229-4446
**********************************************************************
"The world's great Atlantic hurricanes are apocalyptic machines that
 move across water, feed off water, push water from ocean to shore and
 out of giant lakes, and make water a weapon of death."
 - Eliot Kleinberg, _Black Cloud - The Great Florida Hurricane of 1928_


Title:The Influence of Tropical Cyclone Size on Intensification
Abstract: This study investigates the tropical cyclones of the past
two decades (1990-2010) and the correlation, if any, between their
size and their ability to undergo rapid intensification (RI). A rapid
intensification period is considered to be anything â 30kt / 24 hours.
Three different parameters are chosen to define the size of a tropical
cyclone; radius of maximum wind (RMW), radius of outermost closed
isobar (ROCI), and the average 34 kt radius and are compared in order
to observe any different intensification tendencies. The data for this
study, mainly coming from the extended-best track (EBT) dataset, is
organized into 24-hour intervals of intensification (RI periods)
and/or constant intensity periods (Non RI periods). Each interval
shows the maximum wind speed, RMW, ROCI, and average 34 kt radii at
the beginning of the constant or intensification period and the change
of intensity in knots during the 24 hour period. Biases including all
extra-tropical, sub-tropical storms, depression stages, and storms
that made landfall within 24 hours of genesis were taken out as well
as intervals with no data in at least one of the size parameters.
Comparisons between RI and Non RI storms confirm that tropical
cyclones that undergo RI are more likely to be smaller than tropical
cyclones that do not. Out of the three size parameters used, findings
show that the ROCI is the least correlated with intensity and the RMW
is the most correlated; RMW parameter showed a constant signal that
smaller storms have a larger change of intensity.

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