SEMINAR: NHC Seminar - Today, 2:30 pm - Jessica Weinkle - "Model Me This: What is the Florida hurricane risk?"

[Christopher Landsea - NOAA Federal <chris.landsea@noaa.gov>]

Hi folks,

NHC will host a seminar today:

"Model Me This: What is the Florida hurricane risk?"
(abstract is below)

Jessica Weinkle
University of Colorado
Center for Science and Technology Policy Research
Boulder, Colorado

Monday, December 17th
2:30-3:30pm (Coffee & Bagels & Cream Cheese - 2:15pm)
NHC Seminar Room

All are invited to attend.

Sincerely,
chris
**********************************************************************
Chris Landsea
Science and Operations Officer
NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center
11691 S.W. 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149
Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov P:305-229-4446
**********************************************************************
"The world's great Atlantic hurricanes are apocalyptic machines that
 move across water, feed off water, push water from ocean to shore and
 out of giant lakes, and make water a weapon of death."
 - Eliot Kleinberg, _Black Cloud - The Great Florida Hurricane of 1928_



Model Me This: What is the Florida hurricane risk?
The evolution of a riddle in context

When The Riddler first appeared as a Batman villain, he was a simple
fellow; so too, were his riddles.  Over time, The Riddler and his game
evolved, mirroring the techno-socio-political context in which Batman-
and his real life fans- understand and makes decisions about risk.
Despite conventional wisdom about risk and insurance ratemaking,
Florida’s hurricane risk is not an objective fact that exists “out
there.” Today, the hurricane risk is highly dependant on the context
in which it is assessed and requires societal identification,
interpretation, and decision-making. Thus, perceptions of the
hurricane risk have changed along with changes in science, policy, and
social values.  Evaluation of the social context in which decisions
about risk are made bring forth questions about the role of experts in
decision making about society's risk and the use of public insurance
regimes to control 'exaggerated uncertainties' and define acceptable
hurricane risk.

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