SEMINAR: NHC Seminar today - 2:45pm - Josh Cossuth - "Ongoing efforts to assist operational tropical cyclone genesis and structure forecasting: developing new aids"

[Christopher Landsea <chris.landsea@noaa.gov>]

Hi folks,

As part of the NHC Visiting Scientist Program, NHC is hosting
a seminar today:

"Ongoing efforts to assist operational tropical cyclone genesis
and structure forecasting: developing new aids"
(abstract below)

Josh Cossuth
Florida State University
Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science

Thursday, September 20th
2:45-3:45pm (Coffee and pastelitos 2:30pm)
NHC Seminar Room

All are welcome to attend.

Best regards,
chris
**********************************************************************
Chris Landsea
Science and Operations Officer
NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center
11691 S.W. 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149
Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov P:305-229-4446
**********************************************************************
“In this age of smart phones, Twitter and a 24/7 news media,
every tropical wave rolling off faraway Africa is almost as closely
monitored as a Kardashian sister shopping on South Beach.”
 – Curtis Morgan, Miami Herald, 16 May 2012


"Ongoing efforts to assist operational TC genesis and structure forecasting:
developing new aids"

There is a wide range of research at Florida State University towards
expanding and improving guidance for tropical cyclone forecasting.
Efforts in two areas - objective genesis prediction and structure
diagnosis - are highlighted.

The first part of the talk will show an overview and update of TC
genesis forecasts using operational Dvorak estimates in the Atlantic
basin. This database of developing and non-developing tropical
disturbances from 2001-2011 represents the first climatology of its
kind. Dvorak analysis frequency, genesis probabilities and
verification for 2010 and 2011 will be shown. In addition, this Dvorak
climatology is currently being tested in statistical genesis
forecasting (though a current JHT project) and will be tested in an
objective intensity estimate for disturbances (a front-end CIMSS ADT).
Further work in genesis prediction with global numerical models will
also be previewed.

The second half of the talk will focus on microwave imagery and
objective structure diagnosis. In collaboration with NRL, we are
assembling a comprehensive archive of microwave overpasses of TCs
(including SSM/I, SSMIS, AMSR-E, and TMI). To standardize and better
inter-compare TC structure, the ice scattering channels are being
re-calibrated to 89GHz and optimally interpolated to 1 km resolution
using the Backus-Gilbert technique. Furthermore, the ARCHER scheme is
used to find the center. Using this climatology, we will show current
research to find and define TC structural patterns in the inner-core.

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