SEMINAR: NHC Seminar - Monday, August 6th - 2:30-3:30pm - David Nolan

[Christopher Landsea <chris.landsea@noaa.gov>]

Hi folks,

NHC will be hosting a seminar this coming Monday:

"Development and Validation of a High-Resolution Hurricane Nature Run
Using the ECMWF and WRF Models" (abstract is provided below)

Prof. David S. Nolan
University of Miami

Monday, August 6th, 2:30-3:30pm (Bagels and Coffee - 2:15)
NHC Seminar Room

All are welcome to attend.  Foreign nationals planning to attend
must contact me by end of the day Friday.

Best regards,
chris
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Chris Landsea
Science and Operations Officer
NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center
11691 S.W. 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149
Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov P:305-229-4446
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“In this age of smart phones, Twitter and a 24/7 news media,
every tropical wave rolling off faraway Africa is almost as closely
monitored as a Kardashian sister shopping on South Beach.”
 – Curtis Morgan, Miami Herald, 16 May 2012

Development and Validation of a High-Resolution Hurricane Nature Run
Using the ECMWF and WRF Models

David S. Nolan, Kieran Bhatia, Robert Atlas, and Lisa Bucci

A "nature run" is a high-quality simulation of a phenomenon of interest
which is used to provide data to be assimilated into a forecast model,
for the purpose of evaluating the forecast model, its data assimilation
scheme, and the potential utility of new types of observation. We have


endeavored to generate a very high-quality nature run simulation of
a hurricane in the Tropical Atlantic, using the ARW-WRF model with 1
km horizontal resolution, 60 vertical levels, and the latest physical
parameterizations. The simulation is not based on a real storm, but


rather one that is produced within a 13 month ECMWF global nature run
that has already been produced and validated.

This presentation will describe our efforts to validate the hurricane
nature run, that is, to determine the extent to which it is like a real


hurricane, at least in comparison to operational forecast models. For
this purpose, we evaluate the structure of the cyclone in comparison to
a number of observational diagnostics: the pressure-wind relationship,


the outward slope of the eyewall, the decay of wind with height along
the radius of maximum winds, the inflow depth and temperature structure
of the boundary layer, and the distributions of vertical motion and
reflectivity in different parts of the storm.