[Date Prev] [Date Next] [Thread Prev] [Thread Next] [Date Index] [Thread Index]
SEMINAR: REMINDER- TOMORROW HRD/NHC CHART Seminar Series - 10:30 a.m - Dr. Mike Brennan - The Impact of Supplemental Dropwindsonde and Rawinsonde \,Observations on Model Track Forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011)
| From: | Aoml.Receptionist <aoml.receptionist@noaa.gov> |
| Subject: | SEMINAR: REMINDER- TOMORROW HRD/NHC CHART Seminar Series - 10:30 a.m - Dr. Mike Brennan - The Impact of Supplemental Dropwindsonde and Rawinsonde \,Observations on Model Track Forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011) |
| Date: | Mon, 13 Feb 2012 08:27:18 -0500 |
HRD/NHC CHART
Seminar Series
Date: Tuesday, February 14th, 2012 Time:
10:30 a.m. - refreshments at 10:15
a.m. Location:
AOML
First-floor Conference Room Speaker: Dr. Mike Brennan Senior Hurricane Specialist, National Hurricane Center Title: “The Impact of Supplemental Dropwindsonde and Rawinsonde \ Observations on Model Track Forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011)” Abstract: As Hurricane Irene approached the east coast of the United States the NOAA G-IV jet flew 10 synoptic surveillance missions from 23-27 August, along with one surveillance mission flown by an Air Force Reserve C-130 aircraft on 23 August. Additionally, supplemental 0600 and 1800 UTC rawinsondes were launched beginning at 1800 UTC 22 August from upper-air stations in the southeastern United States, and expanded to include all of the continental United States from the Rocky Mountains eastward beginning at 0600 UTC 25 August. Data denial studies were performed for the supplemental observations using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation scheme. The NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) and Hurricane Weather
Research and Forecasting (HWRF) models were then run using the analyses that excluded the supplemental observations. Differences
between the operational GFS and HWRF forecasts and the “data-denial” forecasts were used to quantify the impact of the supplemental
observations on the track forecast of Irene in both models.
Preliminary results suggest a small but overall positive improvement due to both the dropwindsonde and supplementary radiosonde
observations on the track of Irene in the GFS through 5 days. The dropwindsonde data showed the largest improvement in 2 to 3 day
forecasts, while the supplemental rawinsondes showed the largest improvement at days 4 and 5. The supplemental data resulted in little
change to the track of Irene in the HWRF model through day 3 and some degradation to the track at days 4 and 5.
2. Use your microphone and speakers (VoIP), a headset is recommended or, call in using your telephone.
Dial 773-897-3001 Access Code: 246-745-810 Audio PIN: Shown after joining the meeting Meeting ID: 246-745-810 |
- Prev by Date: SEMINAR: GEOTOPICS Presents:
- Next by Date: SEMINAR: MPO Seminar: Dr. Will de Ruijter, Tuesday, February 14, at 3:00 p.m., Slab Seminar room, S/A 103
- Previous by thread: SEMINAR: (Reminder) - Today - "Biotelemetry as a foundation for mechanistic & interdisciplinary studies in fish ecology, conservation & management" - Dr. Steve Cooke @ RSMAS
- Next by thread: SEMINAR: REMINDER - TOMORROW - May2 5, 2010 - AOML IRR -3:00 p.m. - Paul Willis - "The Microphysics of Tropical Atlantic Oceanic, Deep Convection"
- Index(es):
