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SEMINAR: AOML Seminar - November 15, 2011- 10:00 a.m - Dr. George Bryan - “How to make simulated hurricanes look like observed hurricanes”
| From: | "Aoml.Receptionist" <Aoml.Receptionist@noaa.gov> |
| Subject: | SEMINAR: AOML Seminar - November 15, 2011- 10:00 a.m - Dr. George Bryan - “How to make simulated hurricanes look like observed hurricanes” |
| Date: | Thu, 03 Nov 2011 10:43:26 -0400 |
|
AOML
Seminar
DATE: Tuesday,
November
15, 2011 TIME: 10:00
a.m.
– refreshments at 9:45 a.m. Location: AOML First Floor Conference Room SPEAKER: Dr. George Bryan, National Center for Atmospheric Research TITLE: “How to make simulated hurricanes look like observed hurricanes” Abstract: Among the many uncertainties in numerical and theoretical models of hurricanes, perhaps the greatest uncertainty lies in the
parameterizations of boundary-layer turbulence and air-sea exchange.
In an attempt to reduce this uncertainty, I have conducted a very
large set of idealized simulations of strong hurricanes (Category 4+).
The simulations vary only in the specification of surface (10-m)
exchange coefficients and/or length scales in a turbulence
parameterization. To determine which simulation, among the hundreds
conducted, is most realistic, I have examined several simple yet
well-observed metrics of hurricane intensity and structure, such as:
maximum possible wind; minimum possible pressure; surface
wind-pressure relationship; height of maximum wind; and surface
inflow angle. An optimal set of values for exchange coefficients and
turbulence length scales emerges from this analysis, and these values
are reasonably consistent with recent observational and laboratory
studies. Using this information, I also explain why Emanuel (1995)
concluded that the ratio of surface exchange coefficients for enthalpy
and drag (Ce/Cd) is likely about 0.75 in strong hurricanes, and why
more recent work suggests this ratio is probably about 0.5.
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