SEMINAR: NHC Seminar - Tue., Sep. 13th, 2:30pm - Josh Cossuth

[Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov]

Hi folks,

This afternoon, NHC will be hosting a seminar speaker (revised title):

"Tropical cyclone genesis probabilities from Dvorak analyses" and
"Developing a satellite-based identification of hurricane core features"
(abstracts below)

Josh Cossuth

Florida State University

Tuesday, September 13th
2:30-3:30pm (2:15 pm Coffee & Bagels)
NHC Seminar Room

All are welcome to attend.

Best regards,
chris
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Chris Landsea
Science and Operations Officer
NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center
11691 S.W. 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149
Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov P:305-229-4446
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"Late that night, in absolute darkness,
 it hit, with the far shrieking scream,
 the queer rumbling of a vast and irresistible freight train."
 - The 1926 Great Miami Hurricane -
 From _The Everglades:  River of Grass_  - Marjory Stoneman Douglas 



TC genesis probabilities from Dvorak analyses

Research into the genesis of tropical cyclones (TC) continues to be of great interest, as demonstrated by the recent GRIP/PREDICT/IFEX field campaigns. Previous work (e.g. Dunion and Velden 2004; Schumacher et al. 2009) has shown how environmental conditions can alter the likelihood of tropical cyclogenesis. However, forecasting the formation of TCs remains a difficult problem (Brown et al. 2008; Franklin 2011), perhaps due to the lack of a disturbance-based genesis metric. Toward this end, Dvorak classifications have been gathered from both developing and non-developing tropical disturbances to develop a basic climatology of tropical disturbance locations and TC genesis likelihood. Due to the success of consensus TC forecasts, Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB are compared. Verification of Dvorak intensity analysis as a climatological predictor is performed for 2010 using 2005-2009 data. These TC genesis probabilities are made available in real-time at http://mo
e.met.fsu.edu/genesis/.


Developing a satellite-based identification of hurricane core features

A lack of regular in-situ tropical cyclone (TC) observations remains the largest obstacle to an operational inner-core based intensity forecast. Piech (2007) has shown through aircraft reconnaissance measurements that there are specific regimes of hurricane core observations at different intensities. Murray (2009) has further demonstrated predictive skill of TC intensity using statistical analysis of such aircraft measurements. Despite their utility, reconnaissance flights into TCs occur periodically only in the western Atlantic and are elsewhere sporadic at best. To overcome such a challenge, a climatology of TC satellite data (HURSAT; Knapp 2008) is analyzed as an analogue to reconnaissance flights and used to diagnose TC structure and intensity. The use of satellites allows worldwide coverage and can provide information on TCs where reconnaissance aircraft does not fly.

In particular, structural patterns as diagnosed by microwave channels from SSMI are explored as representations of physical processes within the TC core. With the help of ARCHER software (Wimmers and Velden 2010), characteristic features of the TC are identified with respect to location and intensity. From this climatology, patterns of TC structure are compared to future intensity change and can be used as an aid to TC prediction. As the climatology is expanded, validation of model performance may eventually reach beyond just track and intensity, but can include TC internal structure as well. Ultimately, the goals of this research are 1) to better understand what factors determine inner core changes, such as eye size, convective structure and storm size and 2) to incorporate core measurements of TCs into statistical guidance and further improve the most skillful TC guidance.




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