SEMINAR: AOML Seminar - September 15, 2011 - Marcus van Lier-Walqui - “Using radar reflectivity to quantify microphysical parameterization uncertainty”

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AOML Seminar  

DATE:            Thursday, September 15, 2011

TIME:             10:00 a.m. – refreshments

                         at 9:45 a.m.

Location:  AOML First Floor Conference Room

SPEAKER:     Marcus van Lier-Walqui, RSMAS, UM

TITLE:           “Using radar reflectivity to quantify microphysical
                        parameterization uncertainty”

Abstract: Cloud and precipitation microphysical processes are parameterized in numerical weather prediction models, leading to uncertainty associated
with these processes in the forecast.  In an effort to quantify the uncertainty in the parameterization, simulated radar reflectivity observations are used within
 a probabilistic inverse modeling framework, yielding a probability density function for likely parameter values, as conditioned by the observations. In addition,
the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method employed allows for a probabilistic quantification of the relationship between parameter uncertainty and
 uncertainty in radar reflectivity observations as well as uncertainty in the activity of individual microphysical processes represented in the model.

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