SEMINAR: Re: NHC Seminar - Wed., 13 July, 2:30-3:30pm - Dave Zelinsky

[Frank Marks <Frank.Marks@noaa.gov>]

Thanks Gloria.

On Jul 12, 2011, at 1:26 PM, Gloria.Aversano@noaa.gov wrote:

> All, 
> Dave Zelinsky's presentation will be remotely accessible via WebEx
> 
> Topic: Dave Zelinsky-Statistical prediction of T.C. Intensity
> Date: Wednesday, July 13, 2011
> Time: 2:30 pm, Eastern Daylight Time (New York, GMT-04:00)
> Meeting Number: 747 673 989
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> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov
> Date: Tuesday, July 12, 2011 1:14 pm
> Subject: NHC Seminar - Wed., 13 July, 2:30-3:30pm - Dave Zelinsky
> 
>> Hi folks,
>> 
>> There will be a seminar here at NHC tomorrow (Wednesday):
>> 
>> "Statistical prediction of tropical cyclone intensity using 
>> dynamical and
>> thermodynamical inner-core parameters derived from HWRF analysis and
>> forecasts"  and "Initial diagnostic observations of the 2011 
>> operational HWRF"
>> (Abstract below.)
>> 
>> Dave Zelinsky
>> HFIP Hurricane Researcher
>> National Hurricane Center
>> 
>> 2:30-3:30pm (Coffee and pastelitos at 2:15pm)
>> Wednesday, July 13th
>> NHC Seminar room
>> 
>> All are welcome to attend. 
>> 
>> best regards,
>> chris landsea
>> **********************************************************************
>> Chris Landsea
>> Science and Operations Officer
>> NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center
>> 11691 S.W. 17th Street
>> Miami, Florida 33165-2149
>> Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov P:305-229-4446
>> **********************************************************************
>> "Over and over this jerky, four second video showed clumps and
>> gauzy strips of clouds beginning to curl around a point, as if
>> sucked in by a magnet.  To tropical storm analysts this was a
>> sign of 'organization,' a profane and inadequate word to describe
>> one of nature's most beautiful mysteries, the transformation of
>> chaos into order, of perturbation into cyclone."
>> - The genesis of Hurricane Mitch, 1998
>> - _The Ship and the Storm_ by Jim Carrier
>> 
>> 
>> Title/Abstract
>> ---------------
>> Part 1:
>> 
>> Statistical prediction of tropical cyclone intensity using 
>> dynamical and thermodynamical inner-core parameters derived from 
>> HWRF analysis and forecasts
>> 
>> Four new dynamical and thermodynamical predictors were used as the 
>> basis for a new linear regression model for short range hurricane 
>> intensity prediction.  The four predictors are (1) the horizontal 
>> advection of relative angular momentum, (2) energy exchange from 
>> the divergent to the rotational kinetic energy (psi-chi 
>> interactions), (3) the conversion of shear vorticity to curvature 
>> vorticity, and (4) the vertical differential of heating in the 
>> complete potential vorticity equation.  The new model produces 
>> systematically better forecasts than HWRF for short term (less than 
>> 48-hr) forecasts.  Additional methods were developed to extend 
>> forecasts beyond 48 hours, resulting in a systematic improvement of 
>> HWRF forecasts.
>> 
>> Part 2:
>> 
>> Initial diagnostic observations of the 2011 operational HWRF
>> 
>> A few diagnostic observations of the 2011 HWRF are presented for 
>> discussion.  Initial statistical analysis of high-temporal (18s) 
>> resolution HWRF forecasts of Earl will be presented.  Additionally, 
>> a few observations of initialization issues with HWRF will be 
>> discussed.

The contents of this message are mine personally and do not necessarily reflect any position of NOAA.
______________________________________________________
Frank D. Marks             EMAIL: Frank.Marks@noaa.gov 
NOAA/AOML, Hurricane Research Division
4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149-1097
PH: (305) 361-4321      FAX: (305) 361-4402
______________________________________________________





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