SEMINAR: Re: NHC Seminar - Wed., 13 July, 2:30-3:30pm - Dave Zelinsky

[Gloria.Aversano@noaa.gov]

All, 
Dave Zelinsky's presentation will be remotely accessible via WebEx

Topic: Dave Zelinsky-Statistical prediction of T.C. Intensity
Date: Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Time: 2:30 pm, Eastern Daylight Time (New York, GMT-04:00)
Meeting Number: 747 673 989
Meeting Password: NHC
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----- Original Message -----
From: Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov
Date: Tuesday, July 12, 2011 1:14 pm
Subject: NHC Seminar - Wed., 13 July, 2:30-3:30pm - Dave Zelinsky

> Hi folks,
> 
> There will be a seminar here at NHC tomorrow (Wednesday):
> 
> "Statistical prediction of tropical cyclone intensity using 
> dynamical and
> thermodynamical inner-core parameters derived from HWRF analysis and
> forecasts"  and "Initial diagnostic observations of the 2011 
> operational HWRF"
> (Abstract below.)
> 
> Dave Zelinsky
> HFIP Hurricane Researcher
> National Hurricane Center
> 
> 2:30-3:30pm (Coffee and pastelitos at 2:15pm)
> Wednesday, July 13th
> NHC Seminar room
> 
> All are welcome to attend. 
> 
> best regards,
> chris landsea
> **********************************************************************
> Chris Landsea
> Science and Operations Officer
> NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center
> 11691 S.W. 17th Street
> Miami, Florida 33165-2149
> Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov P:305-229-4446
> **********************************************************************
> "Over and over this jerky, four second video showed clumps and
> gauzy strips of clouds beginning to curl around a point, as if
> sucked in by a magnet.  To tropical storm analysts this was a
> sign of 'organization,' a profane and inadequate word to describe
> one of nature's most beautiful mysteries, the transformation of
> chaos into order, of perturbation into cyclone."
> - The genesis of Hurricane Mitch, 1998
> - _The Ship and the Storm_ by Jim Carrier
> 
> 
> Title/Abstract
> ---------------
> Part 1:
> 
> Statistical prediction of tropical cyclone intensity using 
> dynamical and thermodynamical inner-core parameters derived from 
> HWRF analysis and forecasts
> 
> Four new dynamical and thermodynamical predictors were used as the 
> basis for a new linear regression model for short range hurricane 
> intensity prediction.  The four predictors are (1) the horizontal 
> advection of relative angular momentum, (2) energy exchange from 
> the divergent to the rotational kinetic energy (psi-chi 
> interactions), (3) the conversion of shear vorticity to curvature 
> vorticity, and (4) the vertical differential of heating in the 
> complete potential vorticity equation.  The new model produces 
> systematically better forecasts than HWRF for short term (less than 
> 48-hr) forecasts.  Additional methods were developed to extend 
> forecasts beyond 48 hours, resulting in a systematic improvement of 
> HWRF forecasts.
> 
> Part 2:
> 
> Initial diagnostic observations of the 2011 operational HWRF
> 
> A few diagnostic observations of the 2011 HWRF are presented for 
> discussion.  Initial statistical analysis of high-temporal (18s) 
> resolution HWRF forecasts of Earl will be presented.  Additionally, 
> a few observations of initialization issues with HWRF will be 
> discussed.

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