SEMINAR: NHC Seminar - Wed., 13 July, 2:30-3:30pm - Dave Zelinsky

[Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov]

Hi folks,

There will be a seminar here at NHC tomorrow (Wednesday):

"Statistical prediction of tropical cyclone intensity using dynamical and
thermodynamical inner-core parameters derived from HWRF analysis and
forecasts"  and "Initial diagnostic observations of the 2011 operational HWRF"
(Abstract below.)

Dave Zelinsky
HFIP Hurricane Researcher
National Hurricane Center
 
2:30-3:30pm (Coffee and pastelitos at 2:15pm)
Wednesday, July 13th
NHC Seminar room

All are welcome to attend. 

best regards,
chris landsea
**********************************************************************
Chris Landsea
Science and Operations Officer
NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center
11691 S.W. 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149
Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov P:305-229-4446
**********************************************************************
"Over and over this jerky, four second video showed clumps and
 gauzy strips of clouds beginning to curl around a point, as if
 sucked in by a magnet.  To tropical storm analysts this was a
 sign of 'organization,' a profane and inadequate word to describe
 one of nature's most beautiful mysteries, the transformation of
 chaos into order, of perturbation into cyclone."
 - The genesis of Hurricane Mitch, 1998
 - _The Ship and the Storm_ by Jim Carrier


Title/Abstract
---------------
Part 1:

Statistical prediction of tropical cyclone intensity using dynamical and thermodynamical inner-core parameters derived from HWRF analysis and forecasts

Four new dynamical and thermodynamical predictors were used as the basis for a new linear regression model for short range hurricane intensity prediction.  The four predictors are (1) the horizontal advection of relative angular momentum, (2) energy exchange from the divergent to the rotational kinetic energy (psi-chi interactions), (3) the conversion of shear vorticity to curvature vorticity, and (4) the vertical differential of heating in the complete potential vorticity equation.  The new model produces systematically better forecasts than HWRF for short term (less than 48-hr) forecasts.  Additional methods were developed to extend forecasts beyond 48 hours, resulting in a systematic improvement of HWRF forecasts.

Part 2:

Initial diagnostic observations of the 2011 operational HWRF

A few diagnostic observations of the 2011 HWRF are presented for discussion.  Initial statistical analysis of high-temporal (18s) resolution HWRF forecasts of Earl will be presented.  Additionally, a few observations of initialization issues with HWRF will be discussed.

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