SEMINAR: NHC Seminar - Thursday, March 17th, 2:45pm - Jeffrey Czajkowski

[Eric Blake <Eric.S.Blake@noaa.gov>]

Hello everyone:

There will be a seminar here at NHC next Thursday (abstract below):

"An Analysis of Coastal and Inland Fatalities in Landfalling U.S. Hurricanes"

Jeffrey Czajkowski
Austin College
FIU/International Hurricane Research Center

2:45-3:45 pm
Thursday, March 17
NHC Seminar Room

All are welcome to attend.

Eric Blake
Hurricane Specialist, NHC

Abstract:

Improvements in hurricane forecasts allowing for more timely evacuations from storm-surge zones are credited with reducing lethality of U.S. landfalling hurricanes.  The deadly reach of a hurricane, however, is not limited to storm-surge zones.  About 80% of direct U. S. hurricane fatalities since 1970 occurred outside of landfall counties, with most of these fatalities caused by inland flooding.  We construct a Geographic Information System database combining the location and cause of fatalities, estimated wind speeds, and rainfall amounts for the entire track of the storm for landfalling U. S. hurricanes between 1970 and 2007.  We analyze the determinants of total fatalities and deaths due to freshwater drowning and wind.  Inclusion of inland fatalities results in an increase over time in fatalities, in contrast with prior research.  Local storm conditions significantly affect lethality, as one inch and one knot increases in rainfall and wind increase total fatalities by 24% and 3%.  Rainfall significantly increases freshwater drowning deaths and is insignificant for wind deaths, while the opposite relation holds for wind speed.  Freshwater drowning fatalities occur more frequently in inland counties along the center of the storm path, while wind fatalities are concentrated in landfall counties.