SEMINAR: NHC Seminar - Friday, March 4th, 2:30pm - Piers Buchanan

[Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov]

Hi folks,

There will be a seminar here at NHC tomorrow (Friday):

"Ensemble Forecasting Products for Tropical Cyclones
at the UK Met Office"
(abstract below)

Piers Buchanan and Ken Mylne
Met Office
Exeter
United Kingdom

2:30-3:30pm (Bagels/Cream Cheese and Coffee - 2:15pm)
Friday, March 4th
NHC Seminar Room

All are welcome to attend.

best regards,
chris
**********************************************************************
Chris Landsea
Science and Operations Officer
NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center
11691 S.W. 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149
Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov P:305-229-4446 F:305-553-1901
**********************************************************************
"A hundred-knot hurricane's about the prettiest there is.  You get
 stronger than that, the water's all white.  You get below eighty
 knots, the streaks and ripples and blowing spray are less spectacular.
 But at a hundred knots, the sea has this kind of turquoise color and
 it's layered.  There's a filigree of foam on the surface, long streaks
 of glowing foam with long streaks of greenish bubbles beneath that,
 and between the disturbances there's a deep navy blue.  Anybody that's
 seen it wants to see it again."
 ----- Hugh Willoughby in _Inside the Hurricane_ by Pete Davies



Ensemble Forecasting Products for Tropical Cyclones at the UK Met Office.

Piers Buchanan and Ken Mylne
(piers.buchanan@metoffice.gov.uk)

Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom

The Met Office global ensemble forecasting model, MOGREPS-15 runs twice
a day producing global forecasts at 60km resolution out to a 15 day lead
time. There is 1 control member and 23 perturbed ensemble members.  A
small sample of our ensemble general meteorological products will be
reviewed. Since October 2006, tropical cyclone products have been
produced twice daily. There are products for individual tracks and
strike probability for named storms. There are also products generated
for 6 worldwide basin areas which track both existing storms and
potential developing storms. A subset of these products is currently
disseminated to several international forecasting organisations
including the National Hurricane Center. These products will be
overviewed together with some specific examples of their use.
Additionally, as part of the TIGGE cyclone exchange project, Met Office
ensemble storm forecast tracks are shared with those of other
forecasting organisations.  Some objective verification results for
combining ECMWF and MOGREPS data will be presented. In addition, the
combined performance of the 2 ensembles is shown for several examples.

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