SEMINAR: AOML Seminar - January 14, 2011 - 10:30a.m - Prof. Zhaoxia Pu - “Numerical simulations of tropical cyclones with,assimilation of satellite, radar and in-situ observations:,Lessons learned from recent field programs and real-time experimental forecasts”

["Aoml.Receptionist" <Aoml.Receptionist@noaa.gov>]

AOML Seminar

DATE:                    Friday, January 14, 2011

TIME:                    10:30a.m.– refreshments at

        10:15 a.m.

Location:          AOML First Floor Conference Room

SPEAKER:            Prof. Zhaoxia Pu 

                                 University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT

TITLE:                  “Numerical simulations of tropical cyclones with
assimilation of satellite, radar and in-situ observations:
Lessons learned from recent field programs and real-time experimental forecasts”

ABSTRACT -- The impact of data assimilation on the predictability of tropical cyclones is examined with cases from recent field programs and near real-time hurricane forecast experiments.
First, mesoscale numerical simulations are performed to simulate major tropical cyclones during recent field campaigns with the assimilation of satellite, radar and in-situ observations.
Results confirmed that data assimilation has indeed resulted in improved numerical simulations of tropical cyclones. However, positive impacts from the satellite and radar data are
strongly dependent on the quality of the data. Specifically, it is found that the overall impacts of AIRS retrieved atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles are very sensitive to the
bias corrections of the data over cloudy areas.  In addition, the quality of airborne Doppler radar data has a strong influence on numerical simulations of tropical cyclones in terms of
their track, intensity and precipitation structures. Outcomes from assimilating radar data with various quality thresholds suggest that a trade-off between the quality and area coverage of the
radar data is necessary in practice.

Some of above experiences obtained from the field case studies are applied to tropical cyclone cases during the 2010 hurricane season. Results and issues raised from the case studies and
real-time experiments will be discussed.

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