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SEMINAR: June 24, 2010AOML Seminar - 11:00 a.m. - U C Mohanty - "Prediction of Tropical Cyclones over India seas with meso-scale, Modeling Systems: Data Impact Studies"

From: "Aoml.Receptionist" <Aoml.Receptionist@noaa.gov>
Subject: SEMINAR: June 24, 2010AOML Seminar - 11:00 a.m. - U C Mohanty - "Prediction of Tropical Cyclones over India seas with meso-scale, Modeling Systems: Data Impact Studies"
Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2010 14:06:32 -0400
AOML Seminar

Date:             Thursday, June 24, 2010

Time:            11:00 a.m. - refreshments at 10:45 a.m.

Locations:    AOML First-floor Conference Room

Speaker:      U C Mohanty

                                            Centre for Atmospheric Sciences,

        Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi

        Hauz Khas , New Delhi-110016 , India



Title:                  "Prediction of Tropical Cyclones over India seas with meso-scale
                             Modeling Systems: Data Impact Studies"  

Abstract:

The Indian seas (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) contribute only about 6% of global annual tropical cyclones. However, a record of last 300 years on casualties due to tropical cyclones shows the statistics that the Bay of Bengal alone contributes more than 70% of such tropical cyclones which caused a loss of life more than 5000 per cyclone. A timely and accurate prediction of track and intensity of tropical cyclones over the India seas can substantially reduce loss of human life in the region.

 In last two decades with advancement of computing power and development of high resolution non-hydrostatic mesoscale models, a significant improvement in prediction of the tropical cyclones are demonstrated for different basins.

  In this presentation an attempt   will be made to illustrate the R&D works carried out at IIT, Delhi in improving the simulation/prediction of the tropical cyclones over the India seas. The presentation will be confined only to the mesoscale models like MM5, ARW and NMM-WRF systems in prediction of the tropical cyclones in the basin on research as well as real time modes. In particular, an attempt will be made to illustrate the impact of initial values. The impact of satellite derived wind fields, reflectivity and radial wind of Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) data through 3 D-Var assimilation and vortex initialization on prediction of track and intensity of tropical cyclones will be discussed