SEMINAR: NHC Seminar - Friday, March 5th - Robert Meyer

[Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov]

Hi folks,

There will be a seminar here at NHC tomorrow:

"The Psychological Dynamics of Hurricane-Warning Response:  
Evidence from the Lab and Field" (abstract below)
 
Robert J. Meyer
Gayfryd Steinberg Professor
Co-Director, Center for Risk Management and Decision Processes
The Wharton School
University of Pennsylvania
Visiting Professor
University of Miami

2:30-3:30pm (Bagels/Cream Cheese and Coffee - 2:15pm)
Friday, March 5th
NHC Seminar Room

All are welcome to attend. 

best regards,
chris
**********************************************************************
Chris Landsea
Science and Operations Officer
NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center
11691 S.W. 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149
Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov P:305-229-4446 F:305-553-1901
**********************************************************************
"PUNTA GORDA, Fla., Aug. 14, 2004 -- The world went cockeyed
here. Fat metal light poles crimped at the center, bowing to
the ground like the twisty-neck straws in a retro diner.
Couches turned into roof ornaments. Roofs turned into tree
ornaments. Flimsy mobile homes twisted up grotesquely or
simply imploded, leaving behind chunkily diced piles of
someone's life."
--- Manuel Roig-Franzia, Washington Post
 


The Psychological Dynamics of Hurricane-Warning Response:  Evidence from
the Lab and Field

Robert J. Meyer
Gayfryd Steinberg Professor
Co-Director, Center for Risk Management and Decision Processes
The Wharton School
University of Pennsylvania
Visiting Professor
University of Miami

In this presentation I review the findings of a program of research
designed to understand how individuals make decisions to take protective
action in response to tropical cyclone threats.   Central to the work is
a formal trial-and-error theory of storm-response learning that predicts
that individuals’ investments in protection against storm threats will
frequently be sub optimal, and display an oscillating under-investment
pattern over time.  This oscillation is caused by both low experienced
return rates of storms and, paradoxically, the tendency for previous
protective actions to censor feedback about the damage potential of
storms.  Data supporting theoretical predictions are illustrated in a
variety of contexts, data from laboratory simulations in which
individuals make protective decisions against hypothetical hurricane
threats, analyses of spatial-temporal variations in web surfing habits
during the course of actual storms, and a field survey of temporal
changes in threat perceptions during Hurricane Ike in 2008.  The
presentation will conclude with recommendations about how
protective-response biases might be overcome through such means as
better communication of probabilistic threat information and more vivid
characterizations of the likely impact of storms in specific locations.


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