SEMINAR: NHC Seminar - today - Chunzai Wang

[Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov]

Hi folks,

There will be a seminar here at NHC today:

"Tropical Cyclone Variability in the North Atlantic and
Eastern North Pacific"
(abstract below)

Chunzai Wang
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
Miami, Florida

2:30-3:30pm (Ice cream for National Weatherman's Day beforehand)
Friday, February 5th
NHC Seminar Room

All are welcome to attend.  

best regards,
chris
**********************************************************************
Chris Landsea
Science and Operations Officer
NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center
11691 S.W. 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149
Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov P:305-229-4446 F:305-553-1901
**********************************************************************
"PUNTA GORDA, Fla., Aug. 14, 2004 -- The world went cockeyed
 here. Fat metal light poles crimped at the center, bowing to
 the ground like the twisty-neck straws in a retro diner.
 Couches turned into roof ornaments. Roofs turned into tree
 ornaments. Flimsy mobile homes twisted up grotesquely or
 simply imploded, leaving behind chunkily diced piles of
 someone's life."
 --- Manuel Roig-Franzia, Washington Post



Tropical Cyclone Variability in the North Atlantic and Eastern North
Pacific

Chunzai Wang
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
Miami, Florida

In the Western Hemisphere, tropical cyclones (TCs) can form and develop
in both the tropical North Atlantic (NA) and eastern North Pacific (ENP)
Oceans, which are separated by the narrow landmass of Central America.
It is shown that TC activity in the NA varies out-of-phase with that in
the ENP on both interannual and multidecadal timescales.  That is, when
TC activity in the NA increases (decreases), TC activity in the ENP
decreases (increases).  Observational data show that both tropospheric
vertical wind shear and convective instability contribute to the
out-of-phase relationship, whereas relative humidity and vorticity
variations at the lower troposphere do not seem to cause the
relationship.  The talk will also discuss its association with climate
variability such as ENSO, the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the
Atlantic warm pool, including the numerical model results from an
atmospheric general circulation model.  An implication of this research
is that seasonal hurricane outlook can be improved by considering the NA
and ENP together.


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