RSMAS Professor Lisa Beal Visits Cape Town School

IMG_9044RSMAS Professor Lisa Beal was in Cape Town, South Africa in Oct. 2012 for the AGU Chapman Conference on the Greater Agulhas System. The conference was the first of its kind on the African continent and the first conference wholly dedicated to the Agulhas System, which has recently been suggested to play an important role in global climate change (Beal et al., Nature, 2011).
While in Cape Town, she and NOAA scientist Dr. Meghan Cronin visited a science class at the Sophumelela Secondary School to talk about oceans role in the climate system and the Agulhas current that helps shape the regional climate in South Africa.

The Agulhas Current flows as a fast and narrow stream along the east coast of South Africa and is the western boundary current of the south Indian Ocean subtropical gyre. The Greater Agulhas System comprises the sources and influences of the Agulhas current, including its leakage of Indian Ocean waters into the Atlantic south of Africa.
The Chapman Conference was highly multi-disciplinary, including research into the fisheries and ecosystems, coupled ocean-atmosphere processes, water masses and dynamics, and past and future states – through paleoceanography and modeling – of the Greater Agulhas System.
Dr. Beal was one of four lead conveners of the conference, along with Will de Ruijter from University of Utrecht in the Netherlands, Arne Biastoch from GEOMAR Kiel in Germany, and Rainer Zahn from University of Barcelona in Spain.
Click here to read more about Dr. Beal’s research on the Agulhas current.
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The disappearing of the largest lake in the Middle East

U5The world’s third largest hypersaline lake, Urmia Lake is located 1267 meters above sea level in a closed continental drainage basin in northwestern Iran. The lake and its associated wetlands are home to 27 species of mammals, including the endangered Mesopotamian Fallow Deer, 212 species of birds, 41 reptiles and 7 amphibians. High levels of salinity – 200 ppt, which is 5.5 times more than average seawater – limits the fauna and flora that can survive within the lake. The most dominant flora is a green algae and the only marine zooplankton is a unique brine shrimp; Artemia urmiana, which plays a key role in the lake’s food chain, in particular as the primary source of food for migratory birds such as flamingos.

RSMAS_scientistsAlthough the unique and fragile environment of Urmia Lake is protected under the United Nations Ramsar Convention and registered as a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve location, the lake and its surrounding wetlands have been subject to extensive disturbances since the early 1980s. One of the main developments that severely impacted the lake’s environment was construction of the dyke-type “Kalantari” highway to connect two major cities across the lake. As a consequence, natural water circulation, sedimentation pattern and evaporation rates have been significantly altered and high levels of heavy metal contaminants have been introduced to the lake environment.

Lake UrmiaOur study of the elemental distribution patterns in the lake’s sediments reveals high mercury contamination near the Kalantari highway. Moderate mercury contamination is also detected in the main rivers that supply water to the lake, indicating progressive human development in the Lake’s catchment basins. Another major anthropogenic disturbance comes from excessive damming on the Urmia Lake’s tributaries and poor water management in their watershed areas. As a result, the lake’s water level has dropped by as much as 9 meters over the last two decades. The lake has also been losing water to enhanced evaporation in its southern “sub-basin” due to construction of the Kalantari highway.

IMG_8204Covering an area of 5000 km2, Urmia Lake is one of the largest bodies of water in west Asia and plays a crucial role in conditioning regional climate. Rapid shrinkage of the lake not only changes climate conditions in northwest Iran, but it also has a transboundary climatic effect on the neighboring countries such as Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia.  Decreasing the lake’s surface area leads to expansion of salt planes with high albedo and affects the thermal balance of the atmosphere above the lake. Freshly exposed salt planes become new point-sources of toxic slat aerosols into the atmosphere, and can cause serious agricultural and health complications across the region. While enhanced global climate change cannot be ruled out as a contributor to higher evaporation rates at Lake Urmia, it is clear that anthropogenic sources have played a far more significant role in the graduate demise of the largest continental lake in the Middle East. The fate of Lake Urmia and the demand for saving it has increased tension between people and state authorities in a way that an environmental disaster has turned into a national security concern (“The Guardian” September 5, 2011).

600px-Urmia_lake_1984_to_2011Another important aspect of our research is the study of abrupt climate change in the history of the Lake Urmia. Long-term climate data can be used to assess the natural trends in regional climate and their effect on the lake’s water and sedimentary regime. During September of 2012, in collaboration with the Iranian National Institute for Oceanography, we conducted a field campaign in Urmia National Park and collected more than 20 meters of split cores from different locations around the Lake.  The preliminary results of our study has revealed possible abrupt variations in past climate condition of the region, but the severity of such variability and its impact on Lake Urmia is the subject of our ongoing investigation.

By: Assistant Professor Ali Pourmand and graduate student Arash Sharifi of the Division of Marine Geology and Geophysics at RSMAS

 

The Past is the Key to the Present

“The past is the key to the present” is a mantra that all geologists are familiar with, and it’s why we do what we do! In the paleoclimatology lab at RSMAS (aka “Club Mud”), researchers use marine sediments to reconstruct past climate changes. Understanding the natural rhythms, cycles, and perturbations of the climate cycle in the past can help us to better predict climate change in the future, and the potential added impact of human activities on future climate change.

Club Mud students have used the geochemistry of fossils and sediments in cores from the Tropical Atlantic (southern Caribbean) and Tropical Pacific (Gulf of Papua) to reconstruct changes in tropical sea surface temperature, sea level, and precipitation patterns for periods spanning hundreds of thousands of years. The tropics are a large source of heat and water vapor to the atmosphere, and so an important part of the global climate system to study. Of particular interest is the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a band of precipitation where the Northern hemisphere and Southern hemisphere trade winds converge. The ITCZ moves north and south across the equator on an annual basis, resulting in wet and dry seasons in the tropics. Longer-term shifts associated with cooling and warming climate trends can result in prolonged drought or flooding conditions that can affect human populations in equatorial countries.

Dr. Larry Peterson with the Avaatech XRF Core Scanner

One invaluable instrument that Club Mud researchers use to help understand changes in ITCZ position is an X-Ray Fluorescence Scanner, which was the second of its kind in the US. The XRF scanner obtains information about the chemical composition of sediment cores far more rapidly than conventional analysis would allow, and at up to sub-annual resolution. This instrument lets us study long archives that may have previously been too expensive or time-consuming to investigate. We can then use the data we get to investigate ITCZ migration over long time periods and a wide variety of climatic conditions, but at timescales that are relevant to human society. The more we know about the past, the better we can hope to predict the future.

-Kelly Gibson
Marine Geology & Geophysics student
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RSMAS Science Highlights of 2011

RSMAS was a busy place for cutting-edge science this year. Here’s a look back at the top research studies that made headlines in 2011 and the latest science and education from Virginia Key and beyond.

Dr. Neil Hammerschlag’s study of one hammerhead shark’s lone journey to New Jersey made headlines in early 2011 as did Dr. Lisa Beal’s ongoing research on the Agulhas Current and its link to global change change.

Coral reefs made news this year, including from a newly published study by Dr. Diego Lirman that showed Florida’s reefs cannot endure a ‘cold snap’ and from a study of Papua New Guinea reefs by Dr. Chris Langdon that suggests ocean acidification may reduce reef diversity.

 

Before the year closed, Dr. Shimon Wdowinski presented a new study at the AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco that showed tropical cyclones could trigger earthquakes.

RSMAS scientists and student were part of many new and ongoing research expeditions. Researchers and students from RSMAS joined an international team on a six-month field campaign in the Indian Ocean, known as DYNAMO. They are studying how tropical weather brews over the region and moves eastward along the equator, with reverberating effects around the entire globe. Follow the ongoing work from the scientists.

Meanwhile, it was a busy end of the year for Lisa Beal and her research team who embarked on a month-long expedition to the waters off of South Africa to understand how one of the world’s strongest ocean currents – the Agulhas Current – is both affected by climate change and also has an effect on climate change.

On the academic side of RSMAS life, the Masters of Professional Science program was in full swing this year and the newly acquired Broad Key Research Station welcomed its first cohort of students to study the coral reef ecosystems of the Florida Keys. Finally, joint degrees in law and marine affairs was launched at UM to provide students with a unique educational opportunity to tackle environmental issues.

As 2011 comes to a close, RSMAS faculty, researchers and students are looking forward to another busy and exciting year in 2012 filled with new scientific discoveries and educational opportunities.

Tell us about your research plans for 2012.

How Will Climate Change Affect Hurricanes?

Before Tropical Storm Fay (2008)

One area of hot debate is how climate change will affect hurricanes. Some people have the image that things will only get worse with hurricanes becoming stronger, more frequent and making landfall on the US coast more often. However, current scientific research is working to obtain a better estimate on what exactly the impact of climate change will be on hurricanes. The latest scientific consensus has emerged to show that there is a projected decrease in hurricane frequency for the Atlantic and that the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes will have increased wind speeds by 5-10 mph and will occur slightly more frequently (Knutson et al. 2010). Thus, for a given season there will be fewer storms, but the ones that do form have potential to be ever so slightly stronger.

During Tropical Storm Fay (2008)

While all this information is important, what about where they will go? Will climate change have a large impact on where hurricanes make landfall? To answer this question, I am looking at changes in tracks from differences in the atmospheric circulation and genesis location (where a storm forms) in a future climate. As with the other hurricane-related impacts, results suggest minor changes in tracks to occur for the Atlantic. There is a projected decrease of ~2-3 storms per decade over the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico and a slight increase in tracks that stay over the open ocean. So, what does that mean for the US East and Gulf coasts? It tells us that for June through November, the coasts will still be vulnerable to the threat from hurricanes.

-Angela Colbert
Graduate Student
Meteorology and Physical Oceanography
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Q and A with Scientist at Sea: Lisa Beal

UM Rosenstiel School scientist Lisa Beal and her research team are experiencing some less than comfortable work conditions this month. I asked Dr. Beal a few questions about her current research expedition to the Agulhas Current.

Q: Why are scientists interested in the Agulhas Current?
A: The Agulhas Current is a Western Boundary Current, like the Gulf Stream, but flows along the east coast of South Africa in the Indian Ocean. It is an interesting phenomenon for many reasons! The most obvious is its unique geography: below the tip of the African continent the current loops around on itself to form the Agulhas Retroflection, where most waters feed back into the Indian Ocean, but some leak into the Atlantic in large eddies or rings. Probably the most important, far-reaching reason that the Agulhas is of interest to scientists is that it appears to play a role in global climate change.

Paleoceanographic data and model simulations suggest that changes in the leakage of warm, salty water from the Indian Ocean into the Atlantic via Agulhas rings can cause significant changes in the northward heat transport of the Atlantic and hence in the amount of deep water formed in the North Atlantic, causing climatic changes. For instance, paleo data collected from marine sediment cores show that peaks in Agulhas leakage preceded each of the transitions from glacial to interglacial climate over the past 550,000 years. In other words, increases in Agulhas leakage are followed by warming of the global climate by up to 6 or 7 degrees centigrade, although we cannot be certain that the leakage causes these changes.

Furthermore, a 20th century simulation suggests that we can expect Agulhas leakage to be currently increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. If this is the case, it could cause a positive feedback on climate change, as indicated in the past by the paleo data, thus enhancing or speeding up global warming through its affect on the Atlantic heat transport.

Q:  How long have you been studying the Agulhas Current? What new scientific knowledge has emerged on the current since you’ve been studying it?
A: I have been studying the Agulhas Current since I was a PhD student in 1995 and have authored or co-authored 14 scientific articles about the Agulhas system. Over the last fifteen years many new discoveries have been made about the system and here I highlight a few.

One of the first discoveries of this period was that there is a current underneath the Agulhas, below a depth of about 1000 m and flowing in the opposite direction, which carries North Atlantic Deep Water into the Indian Ocean. We now call this the Agulhas Undercurrent.  We also established the mean transport of the Agulhas Current from a year-long mooring experiment at 32 degrees latitude south. The Agulhas rivals the Gulf Stream in strength, with a mean transport of 70 Sverdrups (million cubic meters per second). We also learned that eddies drifting from the Mozambique Channel and from the tip of Madagascar can change the path and transport of the Agulhas Current and its leakage of waters into the Atlantic, by destabilizing the flow and forming Agulhas Rings at the retroflection. Finally, through model experiments and theory we found the link between the Agulhas and Atlantic heat transport and how they are both correlated with the large-scale wind system.

Q: Describe a typical day at work on a research vessel?
A: Work on a research vessel is round-the-clock. On this cruise during a typical day we will recover or deploy a current meter mooring during daylight hours and collect CTD data at night. A mooring consists of instrumentation to measure flow speed and direction, plus flotation, placed up and down a wire and anchored to the sea bed. A CTD is a cluster of instrumentation and sample bottles lowered through the water column from the ship to measure water properties like temperature, salinity, pressure, and oxygen.

Q: What is the biggest challenge for a scientist studying global climate change?
A: My biggest challenge when going to sea to study the ocean is motion sickness! But not everyone suffers with this. More seriously, I would say that the biggest challenge in understanding the climate system and climate change is lack of data. Model simulations are only beneficial if we can validate them with data from the real world, and yet limited funding for the geosciences, oceanography in particular, severely restricts the amount of data we can collect. To understand how climate is changing over time and to be able to predict how climate change over the next century will impact humans, we need to take measurements in the atmosphere, the ocean, and on land repeatedly across the globe. This will take a consistent dedication of public resources over many decades. Can we rise to this challenge?

Follow the research team’s daily journal as they brave the Agulhas Current.

Annie Reisewitz

Follow Annie on Twitter @annelore