Category Archives: Meteorology & Physical Oceanography

RSMAS Storms into AMS Conference

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This past week (April 16-20th) was the American Meteorological Society (AMS) 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology where experts in the field gathered to discuss their research. The conference is more specialized than the AMS Annual Meeting, providing a forum for better discussions and debate on a variety of hot research topics (such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and tropical cyclogenesis). In addition, it is known for being one of the best for graduate students as all students are given the opportunity to give a talk (rather than a poster) if they wish. This week was no exception with excellent talks from many of our RSMAS Meteorology and Physical Oceanography graduate students.

I was fortunate enough to give a talk on my recent work with the impacts of climate change on tropical cyclone tracks, which focused primarily on the North Atlantic region. As with all conferences, you never know who will be in your audience. Dr. Jeff Masters (co-founder of Weather Underground) happened to be in the audience during my talk and discussed my work on his blog. I was very excited about all the positive feedback I received about my work and cannot wait for the next conference.

RSMAS Attendees included (but not limited to):
Dr. Chidong Zhang, Dr. Shuyi Chen, Dr. Nick Shay, Dr. Sharan Majumdar, Dr. Dave Nolan, Dr. Jodi Brewster, Dr. Eui-Seok Chung, Dr. Brandon Kerns, Dr. Benjamin Jaimes, Marcela Ulate, Will Komaromi, Ting-chi Wu, Gino Chen, Emily Riley, David Yeomans, Kieran Bhatia, Yumin Moon, Falko Judt, Atul Kapur, Chiaying Lee, Claire McCaskill, Mike McGauley, Matt Onderlinde, David Zermeno

Recent Alums included (but not limited to): Dr. Eric Rappin and Dr. Daniel Stern

-Angela Colbert
Meteorology and Physical Oceanography
Graduate Student
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CARTHE Kicks-Off Deepwater Horizon Investigation

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Researchers from around the country came together at the Mayfair Hotel in Coconut Grove, Fla. this week to kick off the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative-funded Consortium for Advanced Research on the Transport of Hydrocarbons in the Environment (CARTHE). The GoMRI Research Board was an independent body established by BP to administer the company’s 10-year, $500 million commitment to independent research into the effects of the Deepwater Horizon incident.

Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science Professor Tamay Özgökmen and lead Director of CARTHE initiative address the crowd.

The goal of CARTHE is to develop and improve computational tools to accurately predict the fate of hydrocarbons found in crude oil that are released into the environment, and help to guide risk management and response efforts in mitigation and restoration of the economy and the ecosystem in situations like the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. The Director of CARTHE initiative is UM Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science Professor Tamay Özgökmen, who hosted the meeting.

Twelve universities and research institutions distributed across four Gulf States and in four other states are represented on CARTHE. Chuck Wilson, GRI Chief Science Officer and Kevin Shaw, the Program Manager for the project attended the meeting, and were joined by 65 oceanographic modelers, observational scientists, biologist and chemists. The group shared presentations, participated in plenary sessions, and met in breakout groups.

Twelve universities and research institutions distributed across four Gulf States and in four other states are represented on CARTHE

The effort of CARTHE is complementary to that by seven other consortia in perhaps the largest coordinated oceanographic research effort in recent decades. CARTHE meeting was very productive, with plans being refined on how to peace together a series of hydrodynamic model to span an unprecedented range of spatio-temporal scales of motion in the ocean, and on how to carry out the largest dispersion experiment to be ever conducted in the ocean.

In addition to Özgökmen, the University of Miami has 12 principal investigators on the project, Drs. Shuyi Chen, Mark Donelan, Annalisa Griffa, Brian Haus, Angelique Haza, Mohamed Iskandarani, Arthur Mariano, Josefina Olascoaga, Ad Reniers, Ashwanth Shrinivasan, Ge-Cheng Zha, and Javier Beron-Vera.

Barbra Gonzalez
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Rosenstiel Community Gathers at AMS 2012

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About 30 Rosenstiel School faculty, graduate and undergraduate students attended the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Annual Meeting in New Orleans, LA between 21-26 January 2012. Among the activities were the AMS Student Conference and Career Fair, and a variety of conferences covering satellite meteorology, data assimilation, cloud physics, climate variability, tropical meteorology, and education. A dinner was held in the French Quarter for RSMAS faculty, students and alumni, and Professor Nick Shay was officially elected as an AMS Fellow.

MPO student Angela Colbert with Dr. Sharan Majumdar at AMS 2012 Conference

- Dr. Sharan Majumdar
Associate Professor
Meteorology & Physical Oceanography
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RSMAS Science Highlights of 2011

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RSMAS was a busy place for cutting-edge science this year. Here’s a look back at the top research studies that made headlines in 2011 and the latest science and education from Virginia Key and beyond.

Dr. Neil Hammerschlag’s study of one hammerhead shark’s lone journey to New Jersey made headlines in early 2011 as did Dr. Lisa Beal’s ongoing research on the Agulhas Current and its link to global change change.

Coral reefs made news this year, including from a newly published study by Dr. Diego Lirman that showed Florida’s reefs cannot endure a ‘cold snap’ and from a study of Papua New Guinea reefs by Dr. Chris Langdon that suggests ocean acidification may reduce reef diversity.

 

Before the year closed, Dr. Shimon Wdowinski presented a new study at the AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco that showed tropical cyclones could trigger earthquakes.

RSMAS scientists and student were part of many new and ongoing research expeditions. Researchers and students from RSMAS joined an international team on a six-month field campaign in the Indian Ocean, known as DYNAMO. They are studying how tropical weather brews over the region and moves eastward along the equator, with reverberating effects around the entire globe. Follow the ongoing work from the scientists.

Meanwhile, it was a busy end of the year for Lisa Beal and her research team who embarked on a month-long expedition to the waters off of South Africa to understand how one of the world’s strongest ocean currents – the Agulhas Current – is both affected by climate change and also has an effect on climate change.

On the academic side of RSMAS life, the Masters of Professional Science program was in full swing this year and the newly acquired Broad Key Research Station welcomed its first cohort of students to study the coral reef ecosystems of the Florida Keys. Finally, joint degrees in law and marine affairs was launched at UM to provide students with a unique educational opportunity to tackle environmental issues.

As 2011 comes to a close, RSMAS faculty, researchers and students are looking forward to another busy and exciting year in 2012 filled with new scientific discoveries and educational opportunities.

Tell us about your research plans for 2012.

How Will Climate Change Affect Hurricanes?

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Before Tropical Storm Fay (2008)

One area of hot debate is how climate change will affect hurricanes. Some people have the image that things will only get worse with hurricanes becoming stronger, more frequent and making landfall on the US coast more often. However, current scientific research is working to obtain a better estimate on what exactly the impact of climate change will be on hurricanes. The latest scientific consensus has emerged to show that there is a projected decrease in hurricane frequency for the Atlantic and that the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes will have increased wind speeds by 5-10 mph and will occur slightly more frequently (Knutson et al. 2010). Thus, for a given season there will be fewer storms, but the ones that do form have potential to be ever so slightly stronger.

During Tropical Storm Fay (2008)

While all this information is important, what about where they will go? Will climate change have a large impact on where hurricanes make landfall? To answer this question, I am looking at changes in tracks from differences in the atmospheric circulation and genesis location (where a storm forms) in a future climate. As with the other hurricane-related impacts, results suggest minor changes in tracks to occur for the Atlantic. There is a projected decrease of ~2-3 storms per decade over the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico and a slight increase in tracks that stay over the open ocean. So, what does that mean for the US East and Gulf coasts? It tells us that for June through November, the coasts will still be vulnerable to the threat from hurricanes.

-Angela Colbert
Graduate Student
Meteorology and Physical Oceanography
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Adventures in the Indian Ocean

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Seamen have relied on the winds of the Indian Ocean since the days of Sinbad the Sailor. More recently, scientists have come to appreciate the impact these Indian Ocean winds have on weather occurring in the western hemisphere – on the opposite side of the globe from the Indian Ocean – through a weather phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).

Aerial view of Malé in the Maldives. The two dark lines are propeller wings.


Named after two scientists, this is a 40-60 day weather cycle that consists of a lot of rain over a large area, lasting for about three weeks, followed by a three-week period of calmer weather before transitioning back into heavier rains again.

This weather pattern occurs mostly at the equator, where the effects of Earth’s rotation do not influence weather systems. This happens because near the equator there is no jet stream, and therefore cold and warm weather fronts, like those experienced in the northern part of the US or in other mid-latitude regions, do not exist. This also makes weather at the equator difficult to model, because it is so different from what we experience in the mid-latitudes. Nevertheless, weather at the equator can affect weather in the US, for example by supplying moisture.

Addu Atoll lagoon at sunset

It’s difficult to model this type of weather pattern well, particularly how it begins. The Indian Ocean is known as a ‘genesis’ or ‘birth’ region for the MJO. A large field experiment, called DYNAMO (Dynamics of the MJO), is now underway in the Indian Ocean to study how large regions of rain can develop at the equator, and to use that information to improve weather models. Hundreds of scientists are stationed on islands and research ships. They are equipped with radars and other instruments all across the ocean in an effort to study how a peaceful, warm ocean and calm skies can turn into one of the wettest places on Earth, seemingly overnight. The field experiment, which began on October 1 is being led by Professor Chidong Zhang and includes many scientists and students from RSMAS.

Group photo of RSMAS faculty at the DYNAMO opening ceremony on Gan Island. From left to right: Chidong Zhang, Paquita Zuidema, David Zermeno, Brian Mapes

Photos taken in October, at the start of the research experiment, show the beautiful drier tropical days as the atmosphere is building up moisture. These photos were taken on Addu Atoll in the Maldives, which is located within a degree of the equator. This beautiful atoll encircles a lagoon, and is many miles long but only several blocks wide even at its widest.

DYNAMO will continue well into 2012. You can learn more about the MJO from the Australian weather bureau and follow the weekly weather discussions.

–UM Associate Professor, Dr. Paquita Zuidema