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Hurricane Sandy Prepping for Frankenstorm Transformation

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Latest visible satellite image of Hurricane Sandy, courtesy NOAA / NESDIS.

Hurricane Sandy has taken on the appearance of a mid-latitude nor’easter-type cyclone as seen from satellite. However, data from NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft confirm that Sandy is indeed still a hurricane with sustained winds of 75 mph and a central pressure of 951 mb. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) keeps Sandy as a tropical cyclone for the next 36 hrs – through 8 pm (Eastern) Mon the 29th – before transitioning to an extratropical cyclone. However, as mentioned previously, this extra-tropical transition will not weaken the cyclone. Hurricane Sandy will become co-located with a region of favorable upper-level jet dynamics and baroclinic forcing, which will allow the cyclone to remain strong, if not intensify, right on through landfall. In layman’s terms, this means that a deep trough of low pressure over the Great Lakes region will re-energize Sandy. The global models did a very good job depicting the phasing between Sandy and the mid-latitude trough over a week in advance. Everything is on track for Sandy to become a “Perfect Storm” or “Frankenstorm” as previously predicted.

In terms of impacts, coastal NC all the way north into NY state are currently experiencing squally rainbands ahead of Sandy. Sustained winds of 49 mph with gusts to 63 mph have recently been reported as Cape Hatteras, NC. A tropical storm warning is currently in effect for much of coastal NC as well as Bermuda. These regions are either currently experiencing, or may experience during the next 48 hrs, winds sustained at tropical storm force (≥39 mph). While flooding has not been a major issue so far, rain has been persistent and slow-moving and is expected to worsen. Due to the abundance of rich tropical moisture, combined with the size of the system and slow movement, locations directly in the path of Sandy could see 5-10″ of rain, with up to 15″ locally.

Latest (11 am) forecast track for Hurricane Sandy. Image courtesy the NOAA National Hurricane Center.

Storm surge of 1-3 feet has been reported so far along the FL coast through GA, SC and NC, but should also get worse as Sandy grows larger and approaches the Mid-Atlantic coast. The current official NHC track forecast has Sandy making landfall anywhere from the MD/VA boarder through western Long Island on Mon night. While it is difficult to predict exactly how great the storm surge will be without knowing the exact strength, location, and angle of approach the storm will take, there is the potential for a 5-10 ft or greater storm surge in the hardest-hit areas to the right of where the storm makes landfall, anywhere from MD through Long Island or CT. Storm surge will be worst along SE to NW oriented coastal channels parallel to the wind field, as all the water is driven up-channel unimpeded, especially if landfall corresponds to astronomical high tide. Coupled oceanic models are also indicating that large waves of 10-15 ft will occur on top of this (and potentially even taller offshore).

Strong wind will also be a serious concern. Hurricane force winds will likely occur along the coast near and to the right of the landfall location. However, due to the very large size of the storm, tropical storm force winds will likely occur inland away from the coast. Power outages will likely be widespread, especially since trees blow over more easily in saturated grounds. Lastly, 1-2 feet of snow are likely to fall over parts of WV, with some lighter snow possible for western PA, western VA, and eastern OH. Please refer to your National Weather Service forecast office for official forecasts of local impacts and weather conditions. For evacuation and safety information, please refer to your local emergency management or law enforcement office.

Will Komaromi
Ph.D. Student
Meteorology & Physical Oceanography
Follow the Rosenstiel School on Twitter: @UMiamiRSMAS
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Sandy’s Historic Encounter with the Northeast U.S. Looking Very Likely

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Hurricane Sandy formed just four days ago north of Panama. In its short lifetime so far, it has claimed 21 lives in Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba and unexpectedly intensified to a strong Category 2 storm immediately after exiting mountainous eastern Cuba. It passed over the central Bahamas on Thursday with 105mph sustained winds, and brought tropical storm conditions to Miami, West Palm Beach, and the southeast Florida peninsula. Today, conditions over southern Florida are improving as Sandy crawls north at 6mph. As of 11am this morning, Sandy’s maximum sustained winds are 80mph (a Category 1 hurricane) and the wind field is expanding. Tropical storm force winds (35mph+) now reach 275 miles from the storm’s center, and weaker though still noteworthy winds extend approximately 800 miles from the center. It is located 190 miles due east of West Palm Beach, FL.

The official track from the National Hurricane Center shows Sandy moving slowly to the north through Saturday, then northeast for a couple of days before getting pulled back westward toward the coast. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for the U.S. east coast from the southern tip of Florida to the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

The longer range forecast is becoming more certain as nearly every model now agrees on a similar track and evolution. Unfortunately, the solution being converged upon is a devastating and historic “perfect storm” scenario for the entire northeast U.S. from the coast to hundreds of miles inland.

There’s a fine line between over-hyping a situation, and giving plenty of advanced warning prior to a potentially catastrophic situation. When it comes to a forecast for something like this, think of a spectrum of possibilities: a chance that it won’t be so bad and all the hype is overkill, a chance that it will live up to or even exceed the hype, and then the middle ground of a bad storm, but nothing to panic about. Of course, we don’t know with 100% certainty which of these possibilities will be realized, but since the high-end impact scenario is presently a very real one, it would be prudent to over-prepare and be safe than under-prepare and regret it.

In an effort to aid forecasters as much as possible, weather balloons are being released four times per day rather than the typical two times per day across the entire nation. These enhanced upper-air observations upstream of the storm are fed into models, and starting with more accurate knowledge of the true state of the atmosphere would ideally lead to more accurate forecasts. Secondly, there are two aircraft flying around in the storm this morning: one from NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division and one from the Air Force’s Hurricane Hunter fleet. This will help guide storm-scale data assimilation, while the additional weather balloons will help with large-scale environmental data assimilation. These resources are being utilized due to the looming “perfect storm” scenario unfolding over the next few days.

From Sunday through the middle of next week (and beyond?), this system is forecast to intensify while expanding at the same time. This would bring extraordinary storm surge and rainfall to the entire mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. regions. If you lived in those areas during Irene last year, consider that a practice run. This setup is truly rare and is not your typical hurricane or Nor’easter riding up along the coast.

Several days of heavy rain combined with the strong wind can easily result in widespread flooding, tree damage, and power outages. The Monday-Tuesday period should be core of the worst weather in the northeast, but it won’t just end abruptly either. Immediately along the coast, very high storm surges combined with beach erosion could lead to significant seawater flooding. The full moon on Monday will make the normal high tides even higher, and raising the base sea level.

We will have another update tomorrow when Sandy is located east of Georgia and South Carolina and about one day prior to impacts being felt in the majority of the mid-Atlantic region.

Brian McNoldy
Senior Research Associate
& Author of Tropical Atlantic Update
Follow Brian on Twitter: @BMcNoldy

7 Tips to Hurricane Proof Your Vacation

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How To Make Your Vacation Hurricane Proof

You just booked your dream vacation to the sunny beaches of Miami and the only thing on your mind was how not to look like a lobster or a raccoon from all the fun in the sun. Unfortunately, you forgot about the hurricane season (runs between June 1st and November 30th) and just your luck, there’s a hurricane on the horizon! Don’t agonize over the hurricane and cancel your trip. Instead, be assertive with your trip, make some slight adjustments and start having a great time on your vacation. We prepared some good weather strategies to help combat the storm and try to get you back to relaxing!

Tip #1: Know What’s Going On

Being on top of the storm and knowing what the hurricane is doing. Some great websites and apps include the Weather Channel, National Weather Service’s National Hurricane Center (nhc.noaa.gov), and Hurricane Software app. With the Hurricane Software app, you will be able to see the latest coordinates, the actual distance from your location to the storms location in miles, satellite images and much more.

Tip #2: Buy Travel Insurance!

Protecting your vacation is the last thing on your mind and purchasing a trip cancellation protection package will safeguard your investment and your wallet. Companies like insuremytrip.com will compare travel insurance policies from 20 different issuers and breakdown the cost and coverage’s of all the carriers. Most important thing is to buy the travel insurance early. The policies only work if you buy it before the hurricane disturbs your trip, not during or after. Two most popular insurers are American Express Travel Insurance and Global Alert.

Tip #3: Go On A Cruise Ship

This is an automatic hurricane free vacation! Cruise ships have to protect their passenger’s safety and well-being. Cruise lines will change ports, routes and the ships itinerary in order to avoid the hurricane. The waters might be a little bit more choppy than normal but the ships are designed to take the force of a category 3 hurricane. Check out orbitz.com, kayak.com and cruiseweb.com for the best deals on booking your ship-cation.

Tip #4: Travel Outside The Hurricane Belt!

Statistically, there are parts of the Caribbean that have a low probability of being hit or even experiencing the bad weather associated with the hurricane. The ABC islands are a great example of that statistic. Made up of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao, these three western-most islands of the Leeward Antilles in the Caribbean. Since 1877, Aruba has only had a few hurricanes and only six have passed within 62 miles of the island. I will take those odds any day and enjoy a Mai-tai on the beach!

Tip #5: Airline’s Hurricane Policy

Airline companies are usually a hassle to deal with but when it comes to natural causes, they usually are accommodating for the most part. American Airlines and Delta will actually let you change your flight plans without penalty if you rebook within the time frame the airline designates.

Tip #6: Find a Hotel With Weather Guarantee

More and more hotel chains and single hotels are offering incentives to book at their hotel during hurricanes or tropical storms. Some hotels will offer free room upgrades, 40% off room rate and waive the resort fee. Even if they don’t advertise these deals, ask the front desk or concierge and explain to them that your vacation was ruined and want to see if there was any hotel upgrades to help improve your experience while staying at the hotel.

Tip #7: Be Prepared

Besides taking shelter and getting out of harms way, we tend to forget the essentials until they are finally needed or it’s too late. For example, if you have a rental car, make sure you have plenty of gas; this will avoid long lines or worse case if the power goes, no gas at all. Stock up on water and food supply for three days. Take out extra money from your bank or ATM, again, if the transformers get blown and there’s no power, extra cash becomes more valuable than gold.

Keep in mind that these are just tips and options to help with your vacation. Since we can’t control the weather, the best thing to do is to prepare for the unexpected, be safe and seek shelter at all cost. Hopefully these strategies will help your dream vacation from becoming a nightmare!

William Lester
www.TheRewardsGuy.com

“Perfect Storm” Set to Occur on 21st Anniversary of Original Historic Event

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Hurricane Sandy this afternoon, currently churning over the Bahamas and gradually moving northward. Image courtesy the NOAA National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS).

The odds of a potentially historic meteorological event occurring in the vicinity of the northeastern United States next week are increasing. The players on the field are as follows: Hurricane Sandy traveling northward along the east coast of the U.S., a warmer-than-average Gulf Stream, a very deep upper-level trough over the central U.S. currently bringing snow to Colorado, and unusually strong high-latitude blocking (a very negative North Atlantic Oscillation / NAO). While Hurricane Sandy is currently bringing some rain, wind, and rip currents to South Florida, Sandy has the potential to bring even bigger problems to the Northeast. An increasing number of model forecasts are now “phasing” Sandy with the mid-latitude trough, and given the amount of upper-level jet energy available in this setup, this could become a particularly powerful phasing event.

Something similar happened in late October through early November 1991. It was known as “the Perfect Storm”, resulting in 13 fatalities and caused > $200 million in damages to the northeastern U.S. and fishing and shipping interests. In the Perfect Storm, northward-moving Hurricane Grace phased with a mid-latitude trough, similar to the one over the Central U.S. today. Normally a hurricane weakens as it moves northward, as it encounters an increasingly unfavorable environment. This means greater wind shear, drier air, and lower sea surface temperatures. However, with phasing events, the tropical system merges with the mid-latitude system in such a way that baroclinic instability (arising from sharp air temperature/density gradients) and extremely divergent air at the upper-levels more than compensates for a decreasingly favorable environment for tropical systems. The Perfect Storm deepened to 972 mb, and was at its strongest while out over the open ocean (but still whipping the coast with strong winds and heavy surf):

The co-location of an anomalously deep upper-level trough (left) directly over a strong surface cyclone (right) off the coast of the Northeastern United States during the Perfect Storm: Oct 30, 1991. Image courtesy of Pennsylvania State University meteorology department.

While there is still inherent uncertainty in the forecast, especially considering we are at least 5 days away from the phase, the majority of the numerical guidance has now come into agreement that a phasing event will occur precisely on the 21st anniversary of the Perfect Storm somewhere between the mid-Atlantic states through Maine or potentially the Nova Scotia region. Most of the models now indicate even stronger jet dynamics will occur next week than occurred during for the Perfect Storm, and that today’s storm could potentially deepen to well below 960 mb or even below 950 mb. The fact that the Gulf Stream is anomalously warm for this time of year means that Sandy will weaken less as a tropical system than it otherwise would have prior to the phase. Also, a very strong blocking scenario (very negative NAO) has developed over the north Atlantic means that the cyclone will be very slow moving, and is likely to retrograde westward into the northeastern U.S. rather than continue out to sea like most recurving extratropical cyclones do. While it is too early to pin-down exact impacts from the system at this time, it is likely that portions of the coastal Northeast will experience a damaging storm surge, significant beach erosion, and a prolonged severe wind and heavy rain event. Meanwhile, interior regions of western Pennsylvania into Ohio may simultaneously be experiencing heavy snowfall. Stay tuned!

The Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast for next Tue, Oct 30, 2012. Note that the cyclone is stronger and closer to the coast than during the Perfect Storm. Image courtesy of Pennsylvania State University meteorology department.

Will Komaromi
Ph.D. Student
Meteorology & Physical Oceanography
Follow the Rosenstiel School on Twitter: @UMiamiRSMAS
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Larval Behavior Film Reaches the Final Round of NSF’s “Creating the Future” Video Contest

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When the National Science Foundation announced their “Creating the Future” contest, I was excited to have the opportunity to present my PhD research in the form of a short video. It turned out to be quite challenging to explain my work on underwater soundscapes and larval navigation in just 90 seconds. The film combines unique footage of pelagic fish larvae, recorded by my advisor Claire Paris, as well as audio recordings made on reefs right here in Florida. The final product, called “Sonic Reef,” made it to the final judging round. This means that the film is eligible to win the people’s choice award if it gets enough votes. The $1000 prize money that I could win would be used for field research next summer.

Please vote for “Sonic Reef” by visiting this National Science Foundation website: Click here to vote!

You have to enter your email address – and only once you receive the confirmation email can you cast your official vote.

Thanks for your support!

Erica Staaterman
PhD Student, Applied Marine Physics & Marine Biology and Fisheries
Follow the Rosenstiel School on Twitter: @UMiamiRSMAS
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Tropical Storm Watch for Southeast Florida as Sandy Heads North

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On Monday morning, the season’s 18th Tropical Depression formed in the central Caribbean Sea, between Jamaica and Panama. It quickly intensified to a tropical storm, and was named Sandy. Since then, it has been drifting very slowly and is only now reaching Jamaica and has just reached hurricane intensity. Its rainbands extend far from the center however, and are affecting Jamaica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and soon, south Florida. As of 11am today, the maximum sustained winds are 80mph and tropical storm force winds extend 140 miles from the center. This is the 10th hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic season.

Sandy is forecast to pass over Jamaica today, then eastern Cuba on Thursday morning, the Bahamas on Thursday night into Friday morning, then head northeast along the southeast U.S. coastline. Depending on what affect Jamaica and Cuba have in its intensity and structure, there is a possibility that it could become a hurricane again over or near the Bahamas when it’s at its closest approach to Florida.

Here in the Miami area, we are under a tropical storm watch as of Wednesday morning, and can expect tropical storm conditions to begin later today and last through Saturday with the worst conditions on Thursday night into Friday. This includes very heavy rain and gusty winds in rainbands, strong rip currents, coastal flooding, and beach erosion. Our own Hurricane Portal has several resources of local interest posted.

By Monday and Tuesday, many models are showing the beginning stages of an extremely dangerous and significant storm for the entire mid-Atlantic and northeast regions of the U.S. Sandy may lose some or all of its tropical traits, but even as a subtropical or extratropical cyclone, it could be a huge player for a lot of people next week. More and more models (and ensemble members) are showing Sandy interacting with a strong mid-latitude trough somewhere off the coast of North Carolina and Virginia and becoming ominously intense.

Tracks from various models (colors) and ensemble members (gray). (SFWMD)

By Saturday, when it has crossed out of the Caribbean and into the Atlantic, and has passed over Jamaica and Cuba, models will hopefully be a bit more certain about whether Sandy will head out to sea or head into the northeast U.S.

Finally, today is the seven year anniversary of Hurricane Wilma’s landfall on Florida. Although it made landfall on the southwest coast of the peninsula, it zipped across and will still a destructive storm on the east side of the peninsula. That was the last time the U.S. was hit by a major (Category 3+) hurricane.

Brian McNoldy
Senior Research Associate
& Author of Tropical Atlantic Update
Follow Brian on Twitter: @BMcNoldy