Although Tropical Storm Isaac has weakened just slightly during the past day, any potential impacts on south Florida are still days away and a lot can change. The storm remains rather disorganized. There are two aircrafts flying into the storm, and both of them have had difficulty finding a coherent center of circulation. So while it looks ominous on satellite, the structure under those cloud tops is weak – for now.
At 11am this morning, the maximum sustained winds were 40mph, but tropical force winds extended out to 140 miles from the center, which is quite remarkable for a storm this weak. It is forecast to reach hurricane intensity tomorrow before passing over/near Haiti. On this track, it has about one day between leaving Cuba and its closest approach to south Florida, and what the storm does with that one day is a big question mark unfortunately. The latest forecast track as well as watches and warnings are shown here, and the National Hurricane Center website will always have the most current version.
Based on the 11am forecast track, Miami has a 33% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds within the next five days, and a 2% chance for hurricane-force winds. These numbers will increase as the storm gets closer, but they’re actually fairly high for a 5-day forecast. As it looks now, we’ll start seeing deteriorating weather conditions on Sunday morning, and by Monday morning, the storm should be at its closest approach. Keep in mind that even if the center remains off the west coast of the Florida peninsula, we could still get significant wind and rain over here. My take on the situation would be to prepare for a Category 1 hurricane, and if anything less comes, be thankful.
Have any Hurricane preparedness tips you would like to share? Leave them in the comments.
Brian McNoldy
Senior Research Associate
& Author of Tropical Atlantic Update
Follow Brian on Twitter: @BMcNoldy