On July 19, a tropical wave was born over far eastern Africa… and after traveling across the continent for a week, it exited Africa on July 26 as a coherent easterly wave. On August 1, it became sufficiently organized to be classified as a Tropical Depression (the fifth of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season). On the evening of August 2, it was finally within range of the Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane which was able to more accurately assess the intensity and found a storm with 50mph sustained winds… strong enough to classify it as Tropical Storm Ernesto. This image shows the progress of Ernesto over the past week in a series of satellite image “slices” every 12 hours.
Since then, it crossed over the Windward Islands bringing gusty winds and some light rain, but nothing too noteworthy. Here is a radar image from “landfall” on Saint Lucia, and a full radar loop covering the passage. Presently, Tropical Storm Ernesto is located just east of the Honduras/Nicaragua border and rapidly intensifying. A reconnaissance aircraft found a 7-mile-wide eye at 10am today, and a much more organization than we’ve ever seen in Ernesto.
The environment has been marginal for development over the past week, but has improved markedly now that it’s in the western Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center and computer model guidance are suggesting that Ernesto will continue to intensify as it skims along the northern coast of Honduras. At 11am today, the maximum sustained winds were 65mph with gusts to 75mph. Landfall on Belize (and the Yucatan peninsula directly to its north) is expected early on Wednesday as a 90mph hurricane. There is a long-range radar loop from Belize available here.
Brian McNoldy
Senior Research Associate
& Author of Tropical Atlantic Update
Follow Brian on Twitter: http://twitter.com/BMcNoldy