Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop

10th Annual Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop,
March 13–15, 2012, Miami, Florida

As of 3/7/2012

Time Speaker
Day 1: Tuesday, Mar 13
7:00–8:00 Registration
8:00–8:15 Conference Welcome
Fiona Horsfall (NOAA NWS CSD) and David Letson (University of Miami)
Session 1: Opening Plenary
(Moderator: Fiona Horsfall)
8:15–8:40 A Framework for Integrating Scenario Studies Across Applications
Holly Hartmann (University of Arizona)
8:40–9:05 Department of Defense and Climate Change:  Role of R&D and the National Climate Assessment
9:05–9:30 Anticipating, Preparing for, and Managing Through Extreme Weather and Climate Events: Water Resource Managers’ Needs for Improved Weather and Climate Prediction Information
Levi Brekke (Bureau of Reclamation), David Raff, Kevin Werner, Kathleen White, and Andy Wood
09:30–10:00 Break
Session 2: Agriculture and Food Security
(Moderator: David Letson)
10:00–10:15 An AgroClimate web tool for ARID (Agricultural Reference Index for Drought) monitoring
Eduardo Gelcer (University of Florida), Clyde Fraisse, Kofikuma Dzotsi, Tiago Zortea, and Zhengjun Hu
10:15–10:30 Introducing the Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster
Aston Chipanshi (Canada NAIS), Yinsuo Zhang, Nathaniel Newlands, and Harvey Hill
10:30–10:45 2-weeks ahead temperature prediction for rice crops
Shoichiro Miyawaki (Japan Met. Agency), Shoji Notsuhara, Kazuhiro Osawa, and Shuhei Maeda
10:45–11:00 Improved Climate Resilience of US Corn
David Gustafson (Monsanto)
11:00–11:15 National Security is Dirt and Knowledge
John Wiener (University of Colorado)
11:15–11:30 Immediate-term economic impact of hurricanes on the commercial harvest of groupers (Serranidae) in the US Gulf of Mexico
Daniel Solís (University of Miami), Lawrence Perruso, Julio del Corral, Brent Stoffle, and David Letson
11:30–11:45 Projected Drought Severity and Food Security in the Central United States
Qi Hu (University of Nebraska-Lincoln) and Song Feng
11:45–1:00 Lunch
Session 3: Security of Water and Natural Resources
(Moderator: Caitlin Simpson)
1:00–1:15 Decadal climate research leading to longer-term prediction for the Great Salt Lake hydrological cycle
S.-Y. Simon Wang (Utah State University) and Robert R. Gillies
1:15–1:30 Forecasting Global Ecosystem Change Pressure
Jim Westervelt (ERDC-CERL)
1:30–1:45 Improving Operational ANN StreamFlow and Hydrologic Demand Models Using Reforecast Analogs
Robert W. Rooney (University of Florida) and Christopher J. Martinez
1:45–2:00 Understanding the Utility of Uncertain Scientific Information Regarding Bark Beetle Infestations, Water Resources, and Climate for Natural Resource Managers
Eric Gordon (WWA, University of Colorado)
2:00–2:15 Applications of Climate Forecasts in Electricity and Water Supply Management
Bonnie Colby (University of Arizona), George Frisvold, Paulo Tanimoto, Matt Mealy, and Holly Hartmann
2:15–2:30 Integration of Historical Climate Data and Climate Change Projections: Assessing National Security Implications and Impacts on Water and Natural Resources
Phillip Pasteris (CH2M Hill)
2:30–3:00 Break
Session 4: Building Climate Community for Applications
(Moderator: Victor Murphy)
3:00–3:15 The Carpe Diem West Academy: a compendium of tools, training, and best practices for water resources planning in an era of climate uncertainty
Holly Hartmann (University of Arizona)
3:15–3:30 Grid ACIS: Expanding the Applied Climate Information System to Gridded Data Sets
Keith Eggleston (NERCC, Cornell University), Arthur DeGaetano, and William Noon
3:30–3:45 A comprehensive data & information webpage of the Utah Climate Center
Robert Gillies (Utah State University) and Simon Wang
Session 5: Facilitated Discussion on “Crafting a national system for provision of local and regional climate services: The forest and the trees”
3:45–4:45 Kelly Redmond (Desert Research Institute) and Roger Pulwarty
6:00–8:00 Poster Reception
Day 2: Wednesday, Mar 14
Session 6: National Security Plenary Session
(Moderator: Rachael Jonassen)
8:00–8:30 National Security and Climate Change
Larry Paxton (Johns Hopkins University), William Swartz, Maegen Nix, Glen Fountain, Robert Schaefer, and Michele Weiss
8:30–9:00 Quantifying Risks of Climate Change and Sea Level Rise to Naval Station Norfolk
Kelly A. Burks-Copes (USACE) and Edmond J. Russo
9:00–9:30 Boots on the Ground: A Small-Unit Perspective on Weather and Climate Outlooks
John White (USASOC) and Clara Abraham
9:30–10:00 Break
Session 7: National Security Case Studies
(Moderator: John White)
10:00–10:20 The Challenge of Managing Climate Vulnerability: From Apps to Scenario Theaters
Caspar Ammann (NCAR)
10:20–10:40 Sustainable Security, Fragile States Framework, and Enabling Climate Assessments
Jeremey Alcorn (LMI)
10:40–11:00 Integration of Climate, Snow, Land Information and Models for Environmental Intelligence
John Eylander and John W. Weatherly (ERDC Cold Regions Research and Engineering Lab)
11:00–11:20 A Framework for Investigating Environmental Impacts on National Security Using Satellite Data
Sara Graves (University of Alabama Huntsville), Todd Berendes, and Steve Tanner
11:20–11:40 Heat and health: a perspective from the public sector and the military
Laurence Kalkstein (University of Miami) and Adam Kalkstein
11:40–12:00 The United States Naval Academy (USNA) Earth System Science and Policy (ESSP) Track: Preparing future leaders for science-based decision making in the face of uncertainty
Gina Henderson (US Naval Academy), Joseph Smith, Andrew Muller, Emil Petruncio, Shawn Gallaher, Peter Guth, and David Smith
12:00–1:00 Lunch
Session 8: National Security Tools and Applications
(Moderator: Marina Timofeyeva)
1:00–1:20 Projecting the sensitivity of energy projects to warming in northern latitudes
Rachael Jonassen (LMI)
1:20–1:40 The Impact of Climate Variability on Biofuel Feedstock Production in the Southeastern Coastal Plain
Stamatia Voulgaraki (University of Georgia) and George Vellidis
1:40–2:00 Integrating Seasonal Climate Forecasts with an EnKF-DSSAT-CSM Data Assimilation System for Crop Yield Forecasting
Amor Ines (International Research Institute for Climate and Society), James Hansen, Narendra Das, and Walter Baethgen
2:00–2:20 Climate Prediction Center Products in Support of National Security
Mike Halpert (NOAA Climate Prediction Center)
2:20–2:40 Hurricanes and climate change: What might be expected
Christopher Landsea (NOAA National Hurricane Center)
2:40–3:10 Break
Session 9: Facilitated Discussion on Addressing Climate Informaton Needs of National Security Decision Support
3:10–4:30 Moderators: Rachael Jonassen and John White
6:00–8:00 Banquet (Speaker: Andrew P. Jones, "Games and Climate Security")

Drew Jones is Co-Director of Climate Interactive, a “think and do tank” that creates policy-maker-oriented simulations and games for top leaders and civil society.

He and his team at CI and MIT Sloan developed “C-ROADS”, the climate simulation in use by the U.S. State Department, John Holdren in the White House, the Chinese Government, in the role-playing game “World Climate,” and in the iPhone/iPad app “Climate Pathways.”

Educated at Dartmouth College and MIT, Jones and team accepted the "ASysT Prize" for “a significant accomplishment achieved through the application of systems thinking to a problem of U.S. national significance.”
Day 3: Thursday, Mar 15
Session 10: Health Security
(Moderator: Michelle Hawkins)
8:00–8:15 Bracing for Impact: Preparing a comprehensive approach to tackling climate change for public health agencies
Gino Marinucci (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) and George Luber
8:15–8:30 Strengthening Application of NOAA Science and Services in the Public Health Sector
Cary Lopez (NOAA NOS Oceans and Human Health Initiative) and Juli Trtanj
8:30–8:45 Is climate driving safe drinking water availability and access to sanitation facilities?
Antarpreet Jutla (NOAA NOS Oceans and Human Health Initiative), Rifat Hossein, Cary Lopez, and Juli Trtanj
8:45–9:00 Are you Ready for a One-Health App?
David Green (NOAA NWS OCWWS)
9:00–9:15 A framework for using climate information to prevent malaria epidemics in the Horn of Africa
Derek Willis (International Research Institute for Climate and Society), Galen Treuer, Alexandra Koenig, Madeleine Thomson
9:15–9:30 Contrasting Surface Ozone and Particulate Matter measurements with meteorological conditions in South Florida and its possible impacts on the number of Asthma cases: Five years of correlations
David Quesada (St. Thomas University)
9:30–10:00 Break
Session 11:  Panel on Use-inspired Social Science: RISA investigations of management needs for climate information and understanding regional expertise
10:00–11:15 Moderator: Caitlin Simpson (NOAA OAR CPO)
Keith Ingram (University of Florida)
Kristen Averyt (University of Colorado)
Tamara Wall (Western Regional Climate Center / Desert Research Institute)
Session 12: Social and Human Factors
(Moderator: Adam Parris)
11:15–11:30 Climate Information Seeking Behavior among Professionals in Florida
Norman E. Breuer (University of Miami) and Mason Mathews
11:30–11:45 Investigating Methods for Advancing Literacy on Climate Adaptation
Jenny Dissen (Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites)
11:45–12:00 Real-time Energy and Climate Simulations: Tools for Understanding and Creating a Secure Future
Andrew P. Jones (Climate Interactive)
12:00–1:15 Lunch
Session 13: Emerging Opportunities
(Moderator: Marina Timofeyeva)
1:15–1:30 Global Assimilation of Information for Action: Strategic Analysis of the Response to Climate Change
William H. Swartz (Johns Hopkins University), Larry J. Paxton, Maegen Nix, Glen Fountain, Robert Schaefer, and Michele Weiss
1:30–1:45 The Weather and Climate Toolkit
Steve Ansari (NOAA National Climatic Data Center)
1:45–2:00 An Assessment of Use, Need for, and Capacity to Integrate Climate Information Among Water Managers in the Southeastern United States and the ACF Basin
Jessica Bolson (University of Florida), Norman Breuer, Christopher Martinez, Puneet Srivastava, Nathan Engle, and Pam
2:00–2:15 Applying Climate Data and Best Practices for National Security Decisions
Fiona Horsfall (NOAA NWS CSD), Marina Timofeyeva, and Jenna Meyers
2:15–2:45 Break
Session 14: Panel on Defining Success in Climate Adaptation Support
2:45–4:00 Moderator: Adam Parris (NOAA OAR CPO)
Elizabeth McNie (Purdue University)
Malgosia Madajewicz (Columbia University)
Tjerk Wardenaar (Rathenau Instituut, Science System Assessment)
4:00–4:30 Wrap-Up
Fiona Horsfall (NOAA NWS CSD) and David Letson (University of Miami)