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Surface Drift Uncertainty Analysis Using An High Resolution Tactical Ocean Modeling System
E.F. Coelho, M. Rixen
NATO Undersea Research Centre
coelho@nurc.nato.int(Abstract received 04/07/2005 for session D)
ABSTRACT
The NATO Tactical Ocean Modeling System (NTOMS) was designed to measure and improve reliability of local forecasting. It proposes a hierarchical methodology that starts from the available operational information, builds a reliability flag based on statistical analysis and environmental model ensemble and introduces high resolution sampling and stochastic-feature modelling as a solution to improve the reliability and resolution of local end-products. The NTOMS superensembles, using simplified stochastic modeling applied to surface drift estimation, have shown efficiency and reliability could significantly increase, when compared to standard operational support. However, there were still observed persistent forecast mismatches when in the presence of strong near-inertial dynamics. Data collected during two sea trials in the Eastern Ligurian Sea, and off western Portugal was used to assess near-inertial bands dynamics and to discuss the ability of the existent operational systems to accurately capture these dynamics. Once the NTOMS strategy is fine-tuned, it is expected to produce locally more accurate oceanographic field estimation, providing the additional field functions required to solve the NTOMS ensembles mismatches, and to improve the impact of local high resolution data assimilation in the overall operational models domains.
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2005 LAPCOD Meeting, Lerici, Italy, June 13-17, 2005