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An operational ensemble trajectory model for search and rescue
Oyvind Breivik, Art Allen
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
oyvind.breivik@met.no(Abstract received 04/29/2005 for session D)
ABSTRACT
An ensemble trajectory model for search and rescue in the open ocean is presented. Empirical formulae relate the leeway of a number of typical search objects to the windfield of a numerical weather prediction model. The empirical leeway coefficients were compiled by the US Coast Guard. An operational ocean model provides surface current fields. An ensemble of O(500) particles allows uncertainties in geophysical fields and leeway properties to be accounted for through a simple Monte Carlo technique. The operational setup is confined to the Norwegian Sea and the North Sea by the ocean model coverage.
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2005 LAPCOD Meeting, Lerici, Italy, June 13-17, 2005