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2002 LAPCOD Meeting
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Scales and Variability in Larval Dispersal within the IAS
Robert R. Cowen, Claire Paris
RSMAS
cparis@rsmas.miami.edu(Abstract received 10/30/2002 for session A)
ABSTRACT
Early models and evidence from genetics suggested that long distance dispersal of larvae is likely a common event leading to considerable population connectivity among distant populations. However, recent evidence strongly suggests that local retention is more the rule, and that long distance transport is likely insufficient to sustain ecologically marine populations. We build on earlier model results to examine the probability of larval dispersal to downstream islands within different regions of the Caribbean at varying distances from source populations . Our modeling approach is based on a coupled biophysical model incorporating a high-resolution ocean circulation model (MICOM), a Lagrangian scheme with larval sub-grid turbulent motion, larval sensory capabilities, and the availability of settlement habitat. Special interest is given to parameterization of the eddy component of the Lagrangian flow field ( R-K integration, K, TL). Through sequential runs we estimate the likelihood of particular circulation events transporting large numbers of larvae to within a 9 and 18 km radii of downstream populations. We incorporate realistic larval behavior, mortality estimates, and production variability into our models. Sensitivity analysis on the onset of the active behavior in larval fish is also presented. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that marine populations must rely on mechanisms enhancing self-recruitment rather than depend on distant 'source' populations.
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2002 LAPCOD Meeting, Key Largo, Florida, December 12-16, 2000