Nathan Paldor, Yona Dvorkin
The Hebrew University of Jerusalem
paldor@vms.huji.ac.il
(Abstract received 07/10/2000 for session B)
ABSTRACT
A hybrid model is proposed for calculating the observed trajectories of constant level particles (e.g. balloons) in the atmosphere using standard meteorlogical fields. Particles in the model are advected by a linear combination of the Eulerian ECMUF winds exptrapolated to the desired level and a correctional velocity calculated by integrating the acceleration due to pressure- gradient, the Coriolis force and a drag force modeled by Rayleigh friction term. The model trajectories are at least twice as close to trajectories observed during the EQUATURE experiment conducted in the summer of 1998 than those that result from advection by the airflow. This significant improvement is achieved with a 15% weight of the correctional velocity i.e. when the balloon's velocity is about 85% that of the surrounding airflow. The relaxation time of the Rayleigh friction coefficient is on the order of 1 day in all cases. In addition to the individual best fit of each of the observed trajectories, the model yields a global, single best fit, set of parameter values in which the model trajectories are 33% closer to the observed ones compared to the advection by the airflow. The parameter values of this global best fit set are only slightly different from the three individual sets. A simple, Stokes drift, model where the balloon velocity is allowed to vary slightly from that of the airflow for short times (i.e. where the drag relaxes the balloon to the air speed) yields trajectories that are worse than those of the pure advection for realistic values of the relaxation coeeficient.