G. Buffoni
ENEA
buffoni@estosf.santateresa.enea.it
(Abstract received 07/12/2000 for session B)
ABSTRACT
A number n of particles are instantly released in a semi-enclosed basin at a given point and subsequently dispersed by water motions. The dispersion processes considered here imply that all the particles eventually leave the basin. It is assumed that there is no interaction between the partcles, and that the probability c(t) of finding a particle in the basin at time t is the same for all the particles. Thus, the histories of the particles are independent realizations of the same process. Let N(t) be the random variable "number of particles in the basin at time t". It follows that the probability distribution of the events N(t)=i, 1=0,1,...,n, is a binomial distribution. The basic properties of the stochastic process N(t) are illustrated: time dependence of the probability distribution, and of its numerical characteristics mean value and variance; when the binomial distribution can be approximated by the Poisson distribution; the probability distribution of the events "at least (most) i particles are in the basin at time t". Numerical experiments have been performed by applying Lagrangian models to various sample problems, confirming the results of the theoretical analysis.