Early models and evidence from genetics suggest that long distance dispersal of 
larvae is likely a common event leading to considerable population connectivity 
among distant populations. However, recent evidence strongly suggests that local 
retention is more the rule, and that long distance transport is likely 
insufficient to ecologically sustain marine populations. Here we examine the 
probability of larval dispersal to downstream islands within different regions 
of the Caribbean at varying distances from source populations. Coupling an 
isopycnic-coordinate numerical model with a Lagrangian random flight scheme 
describing larval sub-grid turbulent motion, we investigate the likelihood of 
particular circulation events transporting large numbers of larvae to within 10 
km radii of downstream populations and accumulating them over a year. We then 
examine the hypothesis that larvae of coral reef fishes capitalize on flow 
structures to be retained in the proximity of their native island. 
High-resolution biological and physical surveys of the pelagic processes 
affecting the larval phase of coral reef fishes were conducted on the western 
shore of Barbados to produce an integrated view of the local flow field. Using a 
similar coupled Lagrangian model parameterized to fit island circulation scales, 
we provide information on the formation, maintenance, and advection of larval 
patches by comparing, at different levels of behavior, predicted and observed 
larval distributions. Percentage of larvae retained in the Barbados near-field 
is also estimated.