(This program is subject to frequent adjustments as the Institute progresses. It is only intended to give participants and lecturers a broad overview of the planned activities. Also, all times are tentative. The program will be defined on a day-by-day basis)

Sunday July 11, 1999

Orientation to Participants

3:00 PM: Orientation session (Room MSC 343).

5:30 PM: Official opening of the first IAI/UM Summer Institute. Welcome by Dr. Otis Brown, Dean of the Rosenstiel School and PI of the Summer Institute project. (The Smith Commons).

Opening Dinner.

Participants should meet at the Eaton Hall lobby at 2:30 PM to be driven to the Rosenstiel campus for the orientation session. Non-US citizen participants should bring their passport, I-94 Form, and any proof of health insurance (if available).

Monday July 12, 1999

The Climate System and its Variability (morning and part of the afternoon)

9:00-10:15: The Climate System I .
The climate system: its components, how it works, the energy cycle, the hydrologic cycle, human induced and natural variability, time scales.
Alice Grimm
[ Link to Alice Grimm's lecture notes ]

10:45-12:00: The Climate System II.
Atmosphere: circulation, acting forces, controlling factors, mean fields.Oceans: basic structure, shallow and deep circulation, mean fields.
Alice Grimm
[ Link to Alice Grimm's lecture notes ]

1:15-2:45: Climate variability processes involved

• Air-sea interactions in the tropics
• Tropical-extra-tropical interactions
• Air-sea interactions in the extratropics
• Air-land interactions
• Discussion about the effects of these interactions

Alice Grimm
[ Link to Alice Grimm's lecture notes ]

The Human Dimensions of Global Change

3:00-4:15: Lecture: Overview of human dimensions research agendas.
[ Links to Diana Liverman's presentations and bibliography ]
Diana Liverman

Discussion:

• What are the most important "human" issues concerning climate?
• How does climate-society research contribute to "sustainable development"

Ocean/atmosphere Variability and Predictability

4:30-5:30: The ENSO phenomenon.
Description, mechanisms and observational systems for monitoring.
Antonio Busalacchi

Reading Assignment

• Committee on Global Change. Global Change: Pathways for the next Decade. Chapter 7: Human Dimensions. National Academy Press. Washington DC.

Questions to consider:

• What progress has been made in understanding human interactions with climate?
• What does the CGC see as the priorities for new research on climate and society?
• Is this research policy relevant?
• Would you (or scientists in your country) emphasize different research priorities?

Optional Reading:

• Redclift, Michael. March 1992. Sustainable Development and Global Environmental Change. Global Environmental Change. 2: (1) 32-42.
• Redclift, Michael. 1998. Dances with wolves? Interdisciplinary research on the global environment. Global Environmental Change, 8 (3): 177-182.

Tuesday July 13, 1999

Ocean/atmosphere Variability and Predictability
(morning and part of the afternoon)

9:00-10:00: Extending Climate Predictability - Part I
Beyond ENSO - Global and Atlantic-Sector Climate Variabilities.
[ View abstract in PDF format]
David Enfield

10:00-11:00: Forecasting El Niño: Models, capabilities and limitations.
Antonio Busalacchi

11:00-12:00 Extending Climate Predictability - Part II
Emerging plans for an extended Atlantic Observation System.
[ View abstract in PDF format]
David Enfield

1:15-2:00: Discussion with David Enfield and Antonio Busalacchi on ocean variability and related atmospheric variability, predictability, regional impacts).

The GLOBE Program.

2:15-3:15: The Use of GLOBE Student Data as a Means of Developing a Large-Scale Observing Network.
[View abstract]
Barry Rock

The Human Dimensions of Global Change

3:30-4:30: Discussion of Pathways Report Human Dimensions Chapter.

4:45-6:00: Mini Symposium on Participants' Research and Activities - I

Reading Assignment

• Palm, R. 1990. The development of theory in natural hazards study. pp 56-78 in Natural Hazards: An integrative framework for research and planning. Baltimore" Johns Hopkins Press.

Optional:

• White, Gilbert F. 1974. Introduction from Natural Hazards. Oxford University Press: New York. (IN BINDER)
• Huntington, E. 1962. The distribution of civilization. pp. 391-408 in Mainsprings of Civilization. Mentor Books. (IN LIBRARY) and/or
• Maskrey, A. 1993. Los desastres no son naturales. Bogotá; La Red. (IN LIBRARY).
  

Wednesday July 14, 1999

Morning:

Atmosphere Variability in Seasonal-to-interannual Time Scales

9:00-10:30: Tropical-extratropical interactions. Large-scale/low-frequency atmospheric variability; teleconnection patterns: Possible causes and impacts on regional climate.
Alice Grimm
[ Link to Alice Grimm's lecture notes ]

10:30-12:00: Predictability: weather and climate (seasonal to interannual time scales).
Introduction by Alice Grimm, followed by discussion with Chet Ropelewski on what is predictable.

12:00-12:30: The International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI).
Chester Ropelewski

Afternoon:

Theoretical Perspectives on Climate and Society

1:30-2:30: Lecture on social science theories and frameworks (environmental determinism, neoclassical economics, behavioralism, Marxism, political ecology).
[ Links to Diana Liverman's presentations and bibliography ]
Diana Liverman

2:45-3:15: Introduction to case study by Diana Liverman - ENSO forecast for Latin America. (Maps and forecast discussions in binder and in NOAA booklet).Group discussion of what the forecast means and who the stakeholders are.

3:15-4:45: Breakout into two groups to role play decision to issue the forecast, identify information needs of policy makers, and social science research priorities.

4:45-5:15: Report back from breakout groups with 5 key issues.

5:30-6:00: Mini Symposium on Participants' Research and Activities - II

Thursday July 15, 1999

Climate Variability in the Americas

Morning:

9:00-10:30: Diagnostic studies of climate variability.
Chester Ropelewski

10:45-11:15: How do El Niño and La Niña impact Southern South America and why?
Alice Grimm
[ Link to Alice Grimm's lecture notes ]

11:15-11:45: An overview of El Niña and La Niña impacts on rainfall over Brazil.
Alice Grimm
[ Link to Alice Grimm's lecture notes ]

 

Afternoon:

1:30-2:00: How does the Atlantic influence the climate of the Intra-Americas Sea region?
David Enfield

2:00-2:30: How does the Atlantic influence climate variability in Brazil?
Carlos Nobre

2:30-3:30: Discussion with lecturers and participants, who can also present climate variability signals in their regions.

Introduction to Science and Policy Making

3:30-4:30: Discussion with Carlos Nobre on science communication with policy makers.

5:00-6:00: Mini Symposium on Participants' Research and Activities - III

Friday July 16, 1999

Climate prediction techniques I

9:00-9:10: Basics of climate prediction techniques.
Alice Grimm
[ Link to Alice Grimm's lecture notes ]

9:10-10:15: Statistical Methods: Description, capabilities and limitations, examples.
Chester Ropelewski

10:15-11:30: Dynamic Models: Description, capabilities and limitations, examples.
Carlos Nobre

11:30-12:00: Discussion with Chester Ropelewski and Carlos Nobre on predictability and prediction, and necessary cautions in the use of forecasts. What would be the best way to make a climate forecast, considering the state-of-art of the different techniques?

Climate prediction techniques II

1:30-5:00: Exercise of climate forecast with the participants, based on forecasts issued by several dynamic models for the next season.

Reading Assignment

• Stern P.C. and  Easterling, W.E. eds. Making Climate Forecasts Matter. National Academy of Sciences Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal Climate Prediction. National Academy Press. Washington DC.

Optional Reading Assignment on Agriculture and Water for the weekend (IN BINDER)

• Changnon, S.A. and K.E. Kunkel. 1999. Rapidly expanding uses of climate data and information in agriculture and water resources: Causes and characteristics of new applications. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80(5): 821–830.
• Reilly, John et al. 1996. Agriculture in a Changing Climate: Impacts and Adaptation. In Watson, Robert, Zinyowera, Marufu C. and Moss, Richard H. Eds. Climate change, 1995 : impacts, adaptations, and mitigation of climate change: scientific-technical analyses : contribution of WGII to the second assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Adams, Richard M., Hurd, Brian H., Lenhart, Stephanie, and Leary, Neil. 1998. Effects of global climate change on agriculture: an interpretative review. Climate Research 11:(1) 19-30 DEC 17 1998.
  Zdzislaw Kaczmarek et al. . 1996. Water Resources Management. . In Watson, Robert, Zinyowera, Marufu C. and Moss, Richard H. Eds. Climate change, 1995 : impacts, adaptations, and mitigation of climate change: scientific-technical analyses : contribution of WGII to the second assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Yarnal, Brent. December 17, 1998. Integrated regional assessment and climate change impacts in river basins. Climate Research. 11(1):65-74.
  

Monday July 19, 1999

Morning:

Introduction to Social Science Methods

9:00-10:00: Introduction to impact and social science methods - Part I.
[ Links to Diana Liverman's presentations and bibliography ]
Diana Liverman

Climate, Agriculture and Water Resources

10:00-11:00: Lecture on climate-crop relationships.
[ Link to lecture slides ]
Jim Jones

Afternoon:

1:15-2:15: Downscaling climate prediction: methods and applications.
Introduction by Alice Grimm and presentation by Silvina Solman.

2:15-2:45: Discussion with the coordinators of the mini-projects and lecturers on the downscaling needs for agriculture and water resources management.

Overview of Institute Research Mini projects

3:00-3:45: ENSO and agriculture in Argentina.
Jim Hansen

4:00-4:45: ENSO and water resources in Ecuador.
Remigio Galarraga and Edison Heredia-Calderón

Definition of mini-project working groups.

5:00-6:00: Mini Symposium on Participants' Research and Activities - IV

6:00-6:45: Preliminary meeting of mini-project groups with coordinators.

Reading Assignment on Human Dimensions

• Carter, Timothy and Perry, Martin. 1998. Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment. Earthscan Publications Ltd: London.

Optional Reading on Human Dimensions:

• Fankhauser, Samuel, Smith, Joel B., and Tol, Richard S.J. 1998. The scope for adaptation to climate change: what can we learn from the impact literature? Global Environmental Change, 8: (2) 109-123

Tuesday July 20, 1999

Morning:

Introduction to Social Science Methods

9:00-10:00: Introduction to impact and social science methods - Part II.
[ Links to Diana Liverman's presentations and bibliography ]
Diana Liverman

Climate, Agriculture and Water Resources

10:00-11:00: Applications of Climate Prediction in Agriculture: Roles of Crop Models.
[ Link to lecture slides ]
Jim Jones.

11:00-12:00: Workshop on crop modeling - Part II.
Jim Jones and Jim Hansen.

Projecting crop yield using a crop model

Crop modeling exercise
 

Afternoon:

1:00-2:00: Lecture on climate and water resources.
Brad Wilcox

2:00-5:00: Work on Mini-projects

5:00-6:00: Mini Symposium on Participants' Research and Activities - V

Reading Assignment.

• Markandya, A. and Richardson, J. Chapter on Environmental Evaluation in The Earthscan Reader in Environmental Economics. Earthscan Publications Ltd: London.

Optional:

• Knox Lovell, C.A. and Kerry Smith, V. 1985. Microeconomic Analysis from Kates, R. et al. Climate Impact Assessment. New York: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Wednesday July 21, 1999

Climate and Economics

Morning:

9:00-10:00: Introduction to key concepts in Economics.

Diana Liverman
[ Links to Diana Liverman's presentations and bibliography ]

10:00-11:00: Discussion of IPCC impacts and adaptation methodologies.

Diana Liverman

11:00-11.30: Introduction to survey exercise,
Diana Liverman

11:30-12:00: Introduction to collaborative proposals. Participants form small groups to write 2-page pre-proposals for collaborative research to be reviewed in Week 3. Groups may include 2-4 people from at least two countries.
Diana Liverman, Alice Grimm, and Brad Wilcox.

Afternoon:

Training and Education Issues

2:00-3:00: Video conference on forecast applications and IRI training experience.
Guillermo Berri (from Buenos Aires, Argentina)

3:30-7:00: Work on Mini-projects

Reading Assignment on Climate and Economics

• Mjelde, J.W., H.S.J. Hill, and J.F. Griffiths. 1998. A review of current evidence on climate forecasts and their economic effects on agriculture. Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 80: 1089–1095.
• Sonka, S.T., P.J. Lamb, S.E. Hollinger, and J.W. Mjelde. 1986. Economic use of weather and climate information: concepts and an agricultural example. J. of Climatology 6: 447-457.

Optional:

• Mjelde, J.W., D.S. Peel, S.T. Sonka, and P.J. Lamb. 1993. Characteristics of climate forecast quality: Implications for economic value to Midwestern corn producers. J. of Climate 6: 2175–2187.
• Adams, R.M., K.J. Bryant, B.A. McCarl, D.M. Legler, J. O'Brien, A. Solow, and R. Weiher. 1995. Value of improved long-range weather information. Contemporary Economic Policy 13: 10–19.

Reading Assignment on Human Dimensions

• Whyte, Anne V.T. 1977. Guidelines for Field Studies in Environmental Perception. United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization: Paris, France.
• White, Gilbert F. 1974. Introduction from Natural Hazards. Oxford University Press: New York. (Just look at survey)

Thursday July 22, 1999

Morning:

Climate and Economics

9:00-10:30: Lecture on economic value of climate forecasts and information.
Jim Mjelde

Social Science Techniques – Designing Surveys

10:45-12:00: Groups design a survey on hurricane perceptions.

Afternoon:

1:00-7:00: Work on Mini-projects

Reading Assignment.

• Stern P.C. and  Easterling, W.E. eds. Making Climate Forecasts Matter. National Academy of Sciences Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal Climate Prediction. National Academy Press. Washington DC. Chapter 5 and Conclusions .

Friday July 23, 1999

Morning:

Climate and Economics

9:00-10:00: Lecture on climate impacts on the global economy.
Jim Mjelde.

Vulnerability

10:00-11:00: Lecture on vulnerability and risk assessment.
[ Links to Diana Liverman's presentations and bibliography ]
Diana Liverman.

11:00-11:30: Brief introduction to vulnerability assessment exercise.

Afternoon:

1:00-4:00: Visit to Miami Seaquarium

4:00-6:30: Work on Mini-projects

6:30-8:15: Social hour at RSMAS Dock

Work assignment for weekend:

Write a one page news release on climate forecast .

Complete five perception surveys.

Reading Assignment on Risk, Vulnerability and Communication (IN READER)

• Pulwarty, R.S. and K.T. Redmond. 1997. Climate and salmon restoration in the Columbia River Basin: The role and usability of seasonal forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteorological Society. 78: 381–397.
• Pulwarty, R. and T. Melis. Climate extremes and adaptive management on the Colorado River: Lessons from the 1997/98 ENSO event.

Optional:

• Fischhoff, B. 1994. What forecasts (seem to) mean. International Journal of Forecasting 10: 387–403.
• Cutter, Susan L. 1996. Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards. Progress in Human Geography 20: (4) 529-539.
• Stern P. Environment and Behavior.
• Glantz, Michael H. and Pielke, Roger A. Jr. June 23,1995. Serving Science and Society: Lessons from Large-Scale Atmospheric Science Programs. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 76: (12) 2445-2458.
• Pielke, Roger Jr. and Sarewitz, Daniel. 1999. Prediction in science and policy. Technology In Society 21(2):121-133.
• Felts, Arthur A. and Smiths, David J. 1997. Chapter in Diaz, H.F. and Pulwarty, R.C. eds. Hurricanes : Climate and Socioeconomic impacts. Springer: New York.
• Morgan, M.G., B. Fischhoff, A., Bostrom, L. Lave and C.J. Atman. 1992. Communicating risk to the public. Environmental Science and Technology 26: 2048-2056.

Monday July 26, 1999

Morning:

Communication and Risk

9:00-10:30: Barriers to the use of climate information.
Roger Pulwarty.

11:00-12:00: Brief introduction to research/policy simulations.
Diana Liverman.

Afternoon:

Water Resource Management in the Americas   

1:30-2:45: Assessment of water supplies, and its multi-dimensional and multi-objective uses.
Carlos Fernández Jáuregui, UNESCO Hydrologist.
Video conference from Montevideo, Uruguay.

3:00-7:00: Work on Mini-projects

Work Assignments due this afternoon

• Pre-proposals submitted to Institute organizers.
• Press releases distributed to organizers and participants.

Tuesday July 27, 1999

Morning:

Climate modeling

9:00-10:00: An example of the need for assessment of models performance and use of complementary techniques in climate forecast.
Alice Grimm)

Communication and Risk

10:00-11:30: Vulnerability assessment , discussion of results.

11:30-12:00: Distribution and discussion of news releases.

Afternoon:

1:00-4:00: Work on Mini-Projects

Communication and Risk

4:15-6:35: Simulation of congressional hearing/discussion with policy makers on the value of climate research
(R. Pulwarty, C. Simpson, M.Ohira, D. Liverman, and O. Brown role-play politicians).

Reading assignment

• Locke L.F., Spirdiso W.W. and Silverman S.J. 1993. Excerpts from Proposals That Work. Newbury Park: Sage Publications.
• Project summaries submitted to Meeting of Principal Investigators, NOAA Human Dimensions & Economics Program, Tucson, Arizona,26–28 April, 1999.
• Letter proposals from Summer Institute participants .

Wednesday July 28, 1999

Research Programs and Proposal Development and Evaluation

Morning:

9:00-9:50: NOAA Human Dimensions & Economics Program.
Caitlin Simpson. NOAA Office of Global Programs, USA.

10:00-11:25: Discussion of NRC Report .

11:30-12:00: Keys to proposal development and submission.
Paul Filmer. National Science Foundation, USA.
Link to Dr. Filmer's presentation

12:00-12:30: IAI proposal processing.
Paul Filmer. National Science Foundation, USA.
Link to Dr. Filmer's presentation

Afternoon:

2:00-4:00: Panel review of preproposals in two groups (chaired by Rabuffetti, Simpson, Filmer, Ohira).

4:00-7:00: Work on Mini-projects

Reading Assignment

• Pielke Jr., R. and C.W. Landsea. 1998. Normalized hurricane damages in the United States: 1925–95. Weather and Forecasting 13: 621–631.
• Pielke Jr., R. and C.W. Landsea. In Press. La Niña, El Niño, and Atlantic hurricane damages in the United States. Submitted to Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Work assignment

Fill out Summer Institute evaluation form.

Thursday July 29, 1999

Morning:

Climate Variability and Natural Disasters

9:00-10:00: Human dimensions of tropical cyclones. Hurricanes and ENSO.
Chris Landsea.
[ Link to Dr. Landsea's abstract and other links ]

10:15-11:15: Perception survey: discussion of results.

11:30-12:30: Work on Mini-projects

Afternoon:

1:30-7:00: Work on Mini-projects

Friday July 30, 1999

Summer Institute Wrap-up

Presentation of miniprojects' results,

Final evaluation of the First Summer Institute:

• What worked? What did not work?
• How should we do things next year?

Announcement of Second Summer Institute Theme and Dates

Official Closing of the First IAI/UM Summer Institute
Armando Rabuffetti and Otis Brown

Page Last Updated: July 23, 1999

Contact Information: Guillermo Podestá, Institute Science Coordinator
e-mail: gpodesta@rsmas.miami.edu
Telephone: 1.305.361.4142
FAX: 1.305.361.4622